Monsoon on Track? Australia’s Weather Shift Signals Rain May Arrive in India on Time

New Delhi: India may be heading towards a timely monsoon this year, with weather agencies and atmospheric patterns indicating that the southwest monsoon is progressing on schedule. From intensifying pre-monsoon showers in southern India to shifting weather systems over Australia, multiple global and regional indicators are now pointing towards the likely onset of monsoon over Kerala around June 1.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread rainfall activity, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across several parts of the country over the coming days, especially in southern and northwestern regions.

One of the strongest global indicators comes from Australia, where the Bureau of Meteorology recently declared the 2025–26 northern Australian wet season officially over.

This matters because of a giant atmospheric rain belt near the equator, often linked to seasonal monsoon movement. Every year, this cloud-and-rain belt gradually shifts northward as the Northern Hemisphere heats up during summer.

As this system moves upward, it eventually helps drive moisture-laden monsoon winds towards the Indian subcontinent, and the latest developments suggest that transition is already underway.

Pre-Monsoon Activity Intensifies Across South India

The IMD has predicted heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds reaching 40–60 kmph over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during the next 6–7 days.

Weather experts say these pre-monsoon thunderstorms are a major sign that the seasonal transition has begun. Several southern states are expected to witness isolated heavy rainfall along with strong winds over the next week.

Authorities have advised residents to remain indoors during lightning activity, avoid weak structures and waterlogged areas, and continue monitoring official weather advisories.

Delhi-NCR, North India Likely to See Fresh Western Disturbance

North India is also expected to witness changing weather conditions due to an incoming western disturbance.

According to IMD forecasts, scattered rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds are likely over Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh over the next few days. Another fresh wet spell is expected between May 10 and May 13.

Strong winds reaching up to 50–60 kmph and isolated thundersqualls are also likely in parts of Uttarakhand and adjoining northwestern states.

Despite rising temperatures in some regions, weather experts noted that much of North, East, Central and South India has remained below 40°C in recent days, indicating a relatively cooler summer pattern so far.

Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall Forecast Across Regions

South India

• Heavy rainfall likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for the next 6–7 days
• Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40–60 kmph expected
• Coastal Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Interior Karnataka may also receive showers

Northwest India

• Rainfall and thunderstorms likely over Delhi-NCR, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.
• A fresh western disturbance expected between May 10 and 13.
• Strong winds and isolated thundersqualls predicted in some areas.

East and Northeast India

• Rainfall activity expected over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura
• Heavy rainfall warnings issued for parts of Northeast India
• Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand may witness thundersqualls

Central and West India

• Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha likely to witness thunderstorms and gusty winds
• Maharashtra may receive isolated rain activity over the next few days
• Heatwave Warning for Rajasthan and Gujarat
• While many parts of the country are seeing rain activity, IMD has also warned of heatwave conditions in isolated pockets of western Rajasthan and Gujarat between May 9 and May 13.

Temperatures in Northwest India are expected to rise gradually by 3–4°C till May 10 before stabilising. Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra may also witness increasing temperatures in the coming days.

For now, India appears to be entering the classic transition phase between peak summer and the beginning of the monsoon season.

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