Pakistan, China And Bangladesh Planning To Replace SAARC: What It Means For India's Regional Ambitions

New Delhi: In a major geopolitical shift, Pakistan and China are reportedly working towards creating a new regional bloc to replace the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a prominent organisation with India as its key member. According to reports from Pakistani media, talks between Islamabad and Beijing are at an advanced level, with Bangladesh also participating in recent meetings. 

The South Asian region has long been plagued by tensions and rivalries, with the SAARC being a notable attempt to strengthen cooperation and integration among its members. However, the organisation's effectiveness has been hampered by the strained relations between its two largest members, India and Pakistan. The recent developments regarding Pakistan and China's plan to replace SAARC with a new regional bloc have raised questions about the future of regional cooperation in South Asia.

Will It Be India Vs Pakistan, China And Bangladesh?

The SAARC, formed in 1985, was envisioned as a platform for South Asian countries to come together and address common challenges, promote economic cooperation, and enhance regional connectivity. Despite its potential, the organisation has been largely ineffective due to the India-Pakistan rivalry, largely created due to Pakistan-orchestrated cross-border terrorism. Both countries often find themselves at odds over key issues. Pakistan's actions, in particular, have hindered the organisation's progress, with its use of the SAARC veto to block initiatives like trade protocols and anti-terrorism mechanisms being a notable example.

The tensions between India and Pakistan have been escalating in recent years, with the Pahalgam terror attack in April this year, orchestrated and guided by Pakistan-based terrorist groups, leading the animosity between the two nations to another boiling point. 

On the other hand, the ongoing border standoff between India and China in Ladakh has added another layer of complexity to the region's geopolitics. In this context, Pakistan and China's plan to create a new regional bloc raises questions about the motivations behind this move and its implications for the region.

Recent tensions between India and Bangladesh have arisen since Muhammad Yunus took over as the interim leader. However, Yunus has dismissed concerns about deteriorating ties with India, attributing misunderstandings to propaganda and emphasising the strong historical, political, and economic connections between the two nations. However, several issues have strained relations, including India's construction of border fencing, which Bangladesh considers unauthorised, prompting the Bangladeshi government to summon the Indian High Commissioner. Additionally, trade tensions have risen after India tightened access for Bangladeshi goods through its northeastern land ports following Yunus' remark in China about India's northeast being a "landlocked region". The attacks on Hindu minorities have also led to diplomatic tensions, with India expressing strong disapproval.

Challenge To India's Global Influence

The new regional bloc, reportedly being spearheaded by Pakistan and China, aimed to promote regional integration and connectivity. However, the fact that India, the largest economy in the region, might not be part of this bloc raises concerns about its viability and effectiveness. Bangladesh's participation in the recent meeting in Kunming, China, has also triggered debate about its commitment to regional organisations like SAARC.

The proposed new regional bloc is seen as a challenge to India's influence in the region and its role in shaping regional cooperation. The experts believed that India's skepticism about the new bloc is understandable, given its experiences with SAARC and the role that Pakistan has often played in hindering the organisation's progress. The question remains whether the new bloc will be able to overcome the challenges that have plagued SAARC and provide a more effective platform for regional cooperation.

Pakistan, Bangladesh May Become Liability For China

The experts also suggested that, given the economic conditions of both cash-strapped Pakistan and Bangladesh, the two countries, which are seeking funds across the world, the proposed bloc is likely to become a liability for China in the end. It is claimed that the new bloc may temporarily benefit Pakistan and Bangladesh, but China's scope appears to be bleak. Additionally, with the absence of India, the bloc may witness China's dominance in the organisation. 

As the region navigates these difficult dynamics, the future of SAARC and the proposed new regional bloc hangs in the balance. Will the new bloc be able to provide a fresh impetus for regional cooperation, or will it succumb to the same challenges that have hindered SAARC? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain – the fate of regional cooperation in South Asia hangs precariously in the balance.

The new regional bloc, with an aim to promote regional integration and connectivity, Pakistan and China are convinced that a new organisation is necessary to achieve these goals. The two nations have reportedly progressed in their discussions, and a recent meeting in China's Kunming was attended by Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh. The ultimate goal of this meeting was to invite other South Asian countries that were part of SAARC to join the new grouping.

Background Of SAARC And India's Stance

SAARC was formed on December 8 in 1985, through the adoption of its Charter in Bangladesh's Dhaka, with seven founding members, including India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan joined the grouping in 2007. However, SAARC has been inactive since 2016, when India and other member states boycotted the 19th SAARC Summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad due to the Pakistan-sponsored Uri terror attack.

India has been keen on using SAARC for better regional cooperation and connectivity. However, Pakistan's actions, particularly its use of the SAARC veto to block initiatives like trade protocols and anti-terrorism mechanisms, have hampered the organisation's effectiveness. Pakistan vetoed the SAARC Motor Vehicles Agreement during the 2014 SAARC Summit in Kathmandu, leading India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal to pursue the sub-regional BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement in 2015.

India's Tensions With Trio

The recent developments regarding the new regional bloc came at a time when India is facing heightened tensions with its neighbours, particularly Pakistan and China. The ongoing border standoff between India and China in Ladakh has been a major point of contention, with both sides maintaining a heavy military presence in the region.

India's relations with Pakistan have been seriously strained, particularly after the Pahalgam terror attack in April, claiming the lives of 26 innocent people, which was carried out by a Pakistan-based terrorist group. The incident led to the condemnation of the act globally. Indian Armed Forces resorted to the barbaric act with ‘Operation Sindoor’, precisely destroying multiple terrorist bases located in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). India also remained vocal about Pakistan's role in sponsoring terrorism in the region and has taken measures to tighten diplomatic and economic ties with its neighbour.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, has been trying to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with India and China. While India and Bangladesh have historically enjoyed close ties in the past, the regime change in Bangladesh and China's growing influence in the region have led to a shift in Bangladesh's foreign policy. Bangladesh's participation in the recent meeting in China's Kunming has raised questions about its commitment to regional organisations like SAARC.

New Regional Bloc's Implications

The new regional bloc is expected to include SAARC members like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Afghanistan. While India would be invited to join the new bloc, diplomatic sources suggest that it is unlikely to respond positively due to divergent interests. Bangladesh has dismissed the idea of any emerging alliance between Dhaka, Beijing, and Islamabad, saying the meeting in China's Kunming was not political and that there was no element of the formation of any alliance.

According to M Touhid Hossain, Bangladesh's foreign affairs adviser, "We are not forming any alliance. It was a meeting at the official level, not at the political level." 

India's response to the new regional bloc remains uncertain, but it is likely to be cautious given the country's strained relations with Pakistan and China. India has been a key player in SAARC and has contributed majorly to the organisation's initiatives. However, the new regional bloc's success will depend on its ability to promote regional integration and connectivity without being dominated by any single country or group of countries.

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