Tamil Nadu’s Number Game: TVK Short of 6, DMK-AIADMK Just 2 Seats Away From Majority

New Delhi: Tamil Nadu’s political landscape has entered a phase of intense uncertainty amid dramatic backchannel negotiations, shifting alliance possibilities and a razor-thin battle for the halfway mark in the Assembly.

With the majority mark fixed at 118, actor-politician Vijay’s TVK-led bloc currently stands at 112 seats - just six short of forming the government. The evolving political scenario has now triggered hectic negotiations across camps, with smaller parties and alliance partners emerging as potential kingmakers.

Current Scenario

According to sources tracking the fast-changing developments:

• TVK - 107
• Congress - 5

Total: 112 seats, short of majority by around 6 seats.

The Evolving Equation

At the same time, speculation over a possible understanding between the DMK and AIADMK has sent shockwaves through Tamil Nadu politics. The combined strength being discussed in political circles is:

• DMK - 59
• AIADMK - 47
• IUML - 2
• CPI - 2
• VCK - 2
• CPM - 2
• DMDK - 1
• AMMK - 1

Total: 116 seats, Short of majority by at least  2 seats.

The possibility of the two Dravidian giants exploring a power-sharing formula has intensified after reports suggested AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) is reconsidering the party’s position within the NDA.

'Magic Number 118'

Amid the political turmoil, Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar on Thursday invited TVK's Vijay to Lok Bhavan, and explained that the requisite majority support in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, essential for forming the Government, has not been established.

According to sources, the Governor sought clarity on the "magic number" required for government formation and asked Vijay to furnish details of legislators backing TVK's claim to form the government in Tamil Nadu.

As Congress is now firm in TVK's corner, Arlekar's not callling Vijay to form the government has drawn fiery remarks and allegations from its leaders. Many have alleged that Arlekar is acting on the BJP's whims to stall the due procedure and undermine the Constitution.

All 107 MLAs of Vijay's TVK May Resign

In a latest development, the political turmoil in Tamil Nadu is expected to intensify as there are reports that all newly-elected MLAs of actor-turned-politician Vijay Thalapathy's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) will resign if MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) or Edappadi Karuppa Palaniswami-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) stakes claim to form government in the state.

‘50:50 CM Formula’ 

Sources claim discussions around a possible DMK-AIADMK arrangement gained traction after recent political conversations triggered speculation over an unprecedented coalition formula.

Political chatter in Chennai is now centred around whether a rotational or “50:50 Chief Minister formula” involving EPS and Udhayanidhi Stalin could emerge if numbers remain fractured.

While there has been no official confirmation from either camp, the mere possibility has triggered concern within NDA ranks.

NDA Under Pressure

Sources indicate that if the DMK and AIADMK formally move closer, the NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu could collapse.

PMK is believed to be reluctant to align with the VCK, complicating the alliance matrix further. In such a scenario, BJP, PMK and AMMK could emerge as decisive players in determining who eventually forms the government.

Political observers believe these parties may hold the key to Vijay’s path to power if negotiations intensify.

Left Parties Hold Crucial Meeting

Adding another layer to the suspense, Communist parties began a key general body meeting in Chennai on Thursday to decide whether support should be extended to Vijay’s TVK.

The Left parties had earlier fought alongside the DMK under the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), but sources say a final decision on future support is expected by the end of the day.

Their decision could significantly alter the final arithmetic.

Four Key Possibilities Emerging

1. TVK forms government if parties like VCK, CPI and CPM extend support.
2. DMK-AIADMK tie-up becomes reality, potentially breaking the NDA and forcing BJP-PMK-AMMK to decide the next government.
3. Complete collapse of the NDA alliance if AIADMK exits.
4. Unlikely ideological rivals coming together, with PMK and VCK potentially reconsidering positions for participation in government formation.

As negotiations continue behind closed doors, Tamil Nadu remains on edge with no clear winner yet emerging in the high-stakes political chessboard. With the battle lines drawn, Tamil Nadu is braced for a weekend of intense political maneuvering. As Vijay attempts to stitch together a majority, the state holds its breath to see who will ultimately seize power.

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