QUAD’s Quantum Leap of Faith

On 6th October in Tokyo, the Foreign Ministers of India, Japan, Australia, and US met for the second meeting of the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. While United States was represented by the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, India was represented by Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar. Meanwhile Australia was represented by Marise Payne and Japan by Toshimitshu Motegi.

On the face of it, it might have seemed to be another meeting of just another strategic forum. However, Quad is much for more than just another forum and this meeting was more than just another meeting. Amidst a cataclysmic global pandemic situation, the fact that the foreign ministers of the concerned countries braved against all odds to shun the virtual meeting option and physically got themselves present for a formal meeting indicates the level of importance Quad members are now giving to this forum, which even while still maintaining the form of an informal strategic dialogue forum, is gradually taking the shape of an official strategic partnership model without formally defining it in as many words.

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The Context that Made this Quad Meeting Extremely Critical

In fact, the context of this meeting against the backdrop of a series of events that have drastically rattled the global trade, economic and geostrategic architecture, is worth taking note of. More than six months back the world woke up to the reality of a menacing global pandemic, which subsequently ravaged the world, made millions of people sick, killed hundreds of thousands, created social chaos, and wreaked havoc on national economies that resulted in falling national GDPs and rising unemployment, even as nations had to rush against time to spend money on shoring up health infrastructures, and research on developing vaccines. The war against the invisible Covid virus, or Wuhan Virus, is still on, with no end in sight and one can only wonder how much time it would take for economies and societies to recover from it.

With global rise of Covid cases emerged rising suspicions on China’s complicity, culpability and cover-ups, surrounding the lethality and contagious nature of the virus and whether enough was done by China to prevent its spread from Wuhan, its epicentre, to rest of the world. While suspicions still remain prevalent regarding the role of China’s virology institutes such as Wuhan Institute of Virology, it is the subsequent series of events that gave more credence to apprehensions about China’s role and culpability.

The Chinese Military Aggression in the Midst of an Apocalyptic Global Pandemic Situation

Quite shockingly, even as the world was grappling with the pandemic, Chinese intransigence and hegemonic behaviour along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in India’s Ladakh region, as well as PLA’s threatening manoeuvres during military exercises in Taiwan Strait, or coercive approach in South China Sea, posed serious questions as to whether China had planned and timed them, in order to take advantage of the global pandemic situation, for altering status-quo on its own terms while the rest of the world would still be grappling with the pandemic crisis. Not just that, China has been continuously warning Japan on the issue of disputed Senkaku Islands, and its relations with Australia has been reaching the nadir over the last few months because of several issues, including China’s alleged ‘economic coercion’ threats to Australia over Canberra’s support for global inquiry into origin of Covid.

Also, shockingly, while the world was busy combating the Covid pandemic, China’s hard-line approach to crush opposition against imposition of National Security Law in Hong Kong did not go unnoticed. Later, more revelations poured in about the forced detention of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province and alleged cultural genocide being orchestrated there by China.

It was against the backdrop of all these events that the foreign ministers of the Quad members met. Even though, on the face of it, except for US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who lashed out at Chinese Communist Party for ‘exploitation, corruption and coercion’, and gave examples of China’s activities in South China Sea, East China Sea, Mekong, Himalayas and Taiwan Straits, the rest of the members did refrain from officially mentioning China, it goes without saying that during the closed door meetings, China was invariably perhaps the one and only focal point of discussion.

Quad is Not Yet Asia’s NATO but already a Major Force to Reckon With

While Quad is not yet a NATO, but a fleeting glance at the combined GDP and military arsenal of its four members does give more than an indication of the potency of this group and the reasons why it has unnerved China. If one takes the pre-pandemic figures of previous year, the combined GDP of the four countries would be around $30 trillion with more than $ 800 billion of defence budget. It is no rocket science, therefore, that Quad far outpaces China in terms of economic prowess and military arsenal. Incidentally, two of Quad’s four members, i.e. India and US, are nuclear armed with significant second-strike capabilities.

Why Quad Members are Not Pushovers of US

While one may still argue that the lion’s share of Quad’s combined GDP and defence budget figures come from US, it has to be kept in mind that it is not just US, but also, each of the rest of the Quad members too have stood against Chinese intransigence over the last few months, as China’s aggressive posturing and unilateral efforts to alter status quo made each of them strengthen their resolve to battle it out against China, shore up their defence spending and acquire new weapons platforms.

How India is Countering Chinese Intransigence

In case of India, over the last few months it has been involved in a major face-off with China in the Ladakh theatre, along LAC, with two nuclear capable countries remaining perpetually on the brink of a war. India made mirror deployments to match Chinese deployments and fortified not the just the entire LAC but LOC as well, an indication that it is not discounting the possibility of a two-frontal war. One, of course, also cannot forget the ‘Galwan Betrayal’ that happened in Galwan valley in the middle of June, where Chinese soldiers attacked Indian soldiers with nail studded sticks and broke all codes of soldierly conduct. This resulted in a deadly scuffle with both sides suffering casualties. While India acknowledged and honoured the sacrifices of its fallen soldiers, the same was not done by Chinese PLA publicly. The ‘Galwan Betrayal’ further increased India’s resolve to resist Chinese misadventures and anti-Chinese sentiments reached its peak in India.

Further, India’s deployment of cruise missiles like Brahmos and Nirbhay along LAC, cutting-edge logistical operations to prepare its troops for the long haul in the harsh winters of Ladakh, its deployment of frontline fighter aircrafts both along LAC and in Andaman & Nicobar theatre, deployment of frontline ships in Indian Ocean Region, as also in South China Sea, and blitzkrieg operations to retain its dominance along the heights in the Pangong-Tso Chushul region, are proof enough that it has altered the threshold of its response mechanism against China and the pacifist approach of the yesteryears is a passe now. India is now ready to confront China head-on and would not shy away from it and neither would it allow a ‘business as usual’ approach of China with respect to trade and investment in India especially when Chinese Army continues with its hegemonic aggression along LAC.

As a result, India also started a calibrated process of not just decoupling itself from Chinese supply chain but has also made concerted efforts to exclude Chinese companies from bidding in projects in sectors like power, national highways, railways, and telecom. Add to it, India’s decision to ban hundreds of Chinese apps including the likes of Tik-Tok, WeChat and Alipay did create a trigger effect in terms of many other countries contemplating similar actions on Chinese apps.

How Chinese Aggression is Compelling Japan to Shed its Pacifist Approach

Likewise, Japan has been at loggerheads with China for several years now. In spite of the fact that China has been one of the largest trading partners of Japan, disputes of Senkaku Islands as well as incursions by Chinese submarines and military aircrafts into Japanese territorial waters and airspace, have been steadily raising the mercury levels in Japan.

Also, China’s growing military arsenal and threatening postures almost led to serious deliberations in Japan on amending the clauses of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, that restricts Japan from acquiring offensive weapon systems or application of threat of ‘use of force' for resolving disputes. Japan’s in-principle decision to acquire 105 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters for a whopping $23 billion from US, plans for setting up a new electronic warfare unit in the East China Sea theatre, ban on Huawei and ZTE 5G hardware, launch of a new generation of submarines for its navy, and decision to subsidise those Japanese companies planning to shift their production bases from China to Japan or India, are indicative enough of the growing resolve of Japan to counter China and which has also resulted in rising demand in Japan for increase in military budgets, quite unprecedented in the recent history of Japan.

Australia’s Plans for Massive Military Spending to Counter Challenges in Indo-Pacific Theatre

The case of Australia is no different either. Here too, rising concerns about China’s growing intransigence, military capabilities and alleged ‘Economic Coercion’ tactics, compelled Australia, even in the midst of a devastating pandemic, to announce a $186 billion defence acquisition program to be spent over the next one decade to significantly shore up Australia’s both offensive strike capabilities as well as surveillance, cyber warfare and maritime capabilities. In the words of Australian Prime Minister, ‘“The challenges and changing nature in the Indo-Pacific have meant we need a new approach and one that actively seeks to deter actions that are against our interests,” He further added “These new capabilities will provide a strong credible deterrent in our region that will help provide the stability and security we need.”

Scot Morrison’s emphasis on the fact that the post-pandemic world would be ‘poorer, more dangerous and more disorderly’ and that Australia needs to be prepared for that is an indication of the kind of disruption that countries like Australia are expecting in the realm of the ‘strategic realignment’ that is taking place currently.

Even in the realm of trade, China and Australia are almost on the brink of a full scale war with China putting major restrictions on import of Australian wine, coal and cotton while Australia after having handed over ban on Huawei and ZTE for 5G network development, has also initiated a series of investigations to gauge the level of Chinese interference and influence, in internal affairs and politics of Australia. China’s detention and warnings to Australian journalists exacerbated the matters even more.

The Critical Role of US in Galvanising Quad Members: Maritime and Beyond

Therefore, it is amply clear that each of the above-mentioned member states of Quad have their own face-offs and problems with China. Even though presence of US in the Quad does act as a major force multiplier, the rest of the three are not minnows to been coerced into Quad but have joined in their own volition. Beijing may try to pin the blame on US and accuse it of ‘stirring up confrontation’ in Asia Pacific, the reality however is far from this hackneyed narrative of China.

Nevertheless, the prime reason for China’s discomfort is the joint maritime capabilities of these countries when combined into a synergised entity. Even if one leaves aside US, the naval strengths of Japan, India and Australia are potent ones and can more than confront the Chinese Navy. In fact, bilateral and trilateral exercises between different combinations of these countries to synergise their capabilities have been happening for quite a few years now. Malabar Exercise, now a trilateral setting between India, Japan and US have become a regular affair. In the recent past, even as India Navy was conducting joint naval exercises with an American flotilla led by American nuclear powered supercarrier USS Nimitz, a few thousand kilometres away another supercarrier of US Navy USS Ronald Regan was conducting similar exercises with Japanese and Australian Navies in South China Sea. In certain ways, one can say that US does act as a glue or a galvanising force to keep Quad in a fighting formation as a combined entity, which can literally dominate the entire spectrum of Indo-Pacific maritime region.

From an Informal Structure to an Institutionalised Entity: How would the Road Ahead be?

However, the bigger question is whether India, Japan and Australia would agree to America’s quest for institutionalising Quad. As was quoted by Nikkei Asia, Mike Pompeo stated, "Once we've institutionalized what we're doing -- the four of us together -- we can begin to build out a true security framework," that, as per him, could ‘counter the challenge that the Chinese Communist Party presents to all of us’.

It is here that Japan, Australia and especially India would want further deliberations and seek more time before resolving to accept the US proposal to create a proper structural framework for Quad. While China is one aspect of it, countries like India may perhaps want to seek clarifications on the larger mandate of Quad and whether eventually it would be used as a forum against some of the other countries with whom US may have a problem but the likes of India may not have a problem. This may include countries like Russia and Iran on whom US has imposed CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) related sanctions. Also, India in particular may still want to maintain its strategic autonomy, so far as its foreign policy is concerned even as its strategic proximity with US is growing by the day.

Quad is Here to Stay and Would Only Get Stronger: Thanks to China

Nevertheless, while Quad may take its own sweet time to become a formalised entity, its informal structure and series of maritime exercises among its members, their collaborative operations in the Indian Ocean Region and South China Sea, give enough indication that in the eventuality of any major flare-up, be it in the Ladakh theatre or in the South China Sea theatre, the combined strength of Quad would have a major role to play in terms of countering China.

In other words, future face-offs between China and Quad members may not happen in silos anymore and instead, would invariably make sure that each of the Quad members come to the aid of others if the need be. If nothing else, China’s hegemonic behaviour has certainly acted as a catalyst to bring Quad members closer to each other than ever before.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent statement while addressing Chinese PLA Marine Corps personnel at a military base in Guangdong, where he asked them, as per CNN, to “put all (their) minds and energy on preparing for war" is perhaps only a harbinger of the shape of things to come. While it is still unclear as to whether this statement was aimed at India, Taiwan, or US, or all of them, one thing is amply clear that such statements are only going to hasten the collaborative approach of Quad even more and for the simple reason to counter the rising threats from China, which is increasingly becoming a common denominator for all Quad members and beyond.

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(Image credits- AP) 

Disclaimer: The author of this article, Pathikrit Payne is a New Delhi based Geopolitical Analyst. The views and opinions expressed within the article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing do not reflect the views of Republic TV/ Republic World/ ARG Outlier Media Pvt. Ltd.