EXPLAINED: As Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel prepares to exit, who's next in the race?

Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor for the past 16 years, is approaching the end of a remarkable journey. She was dubbed "Europe's Superhero" by the media. She will be remembered for her handling of a series of crises that rattled a fragile Europe rather than any grand ideas for her own country, which is why many Europeans, including Germans, believe that Germany's ‘Golden Age’ has passed.

Merkel's Golden Era

Merkel supervised the end of military conscription, the transition to a future free of nuclear and fossil-fuel power, the legalisation of same-sex marriage, the establishment of a national minimum wage, and rewards encouraging fathers to care for young children, among other things, during her 16 years at the helm of Europe's largest economy.

Merkel passed her first challenge in 2008, when she promised that Germans' savings would be protected throughout the global financial crisis. She was a key participant in the effort to salvage the euro currency from the debt crisis that overtook numerous countries in the following years, agreeing to bailouts but demanding significant budget cutbacks.

As refugees fleeing wars in Syria and elsewhere travelled across the Balkans in 2015, Merkel was the face of a friendly approach to immigration. Hundreds of thousands were allowed in, and she vowed that “we will manage” the influx, but she faced opposition at home as well as among European partners.

Through years of volatility that saw the United States pull apart from European allies under President Donald Trump and Britain quit the European Union, Merkel insisted on seeking compromises and pursuing a multilateral approach to the world's challenges on the international stage.

Merkel, 67, demands that her record be judged by others. Despite this, she highlighted a few accomplishments at a rare campaign appearance last month, beginning with the reduction of Germany's unemployment rate from over 5 million in 2005 to around 2.6 million now. In the twilight of her career, she oversaw a COVID-19 reaction that saw Germany outperform some of its counterparts. She announced in 2018 that she would not seek a fifth term.

Merkel also inherited Schroeder's plan to phase out nuclear power, although she hastened it after the meltdowns at Japan's Fukushima facility in 2011. She recently set in motion Germany's transition away from coal-fired power. The chancellor highlighted progress on renewable energy, claiming that its share of Germany's energy mix had increased from 10% to well over 40%. In her early years, Merkel was known as the "climate chancellor." Merkel may look forward to a one-of-a-kind finale to her tenure: she will be the first German chancellor to leave power on her own terms.

Who is going to fill Merkel's shoes?

The campaign to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor is wide open, but all of the contenders confront the same difficult task: how do you stand out when you're up against such a political behemoth? The German federal election is scheduled on September 26, 2021, and three candidates are vying for the position of chancellor.

Armin Laschet

Germany's most populous state is led by CDU chairman Armin Laschet, a long-time ally of Angela Merkel. The affable 60-year-old, known for his belief in integration and conciliation, was often underestimated by conservatives. During the election campaign, he came across as hazy and unfocussed, and his poll numbers dropped as a result of gaffes and blunders.

He was the front-runner, but his campaign faltered, largely due to his own unforced blunders. He narrowly defeated his Bavarian challenger, Markus Söder, for the nomination to be the party's candidate for chancellor when the party leadership rallied behind him. However, he is well-connected internationally and is a staunch pro-EU supporter: he served as a Euro MP and comes from Aachen, a border city with strong French relations. Until recently, the CDU/CSU had planned to win over Germany's middle class, preferably with a vote share of more than 30%. That now appears to be impossible. As a result, Armin Laschet is suddenly veering to the right and pandering to hardline conservatives. It's a risky strategy, given that most elections are won on the centre ground. However, Laschet might still become Germany's next chancellor.

Olaf Scholz

The SPD decided to run a realist rather than a radical as their main candidate in 2021, after plunging to new depths with each election. Olaf Scholz, Germany's Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor, is a former mayor of Hamburg and Merkel's deputy in the grand coalition. However, in recent polls, the 62-year-old has witnessed a significant increase in support, as voters seek stability and a reliable ally.

Olaf Scholz, like Armin Laschet, has held a number of high positions in German politics. He presently serves as Germany's finance minister and Merkel's deputy. Unlike Laschet, his chances of becoming chancellor have risen dramatically during the campaign. He is regarded as a safe pair of hands, having previously served as a Member of Parliament from 1998 until 2011. His calm, unflappable demeanour, as well as his ability to speak in ambiguous, content-free words, remind voters of the woman with whom he has spent so much time. It doesn't make for a thrilling experience. According to polls, however, it is reassuring to centrist German voters.

Annalena Baerbock

Annalena Baerbock, 40, has served as a Green Party co-chair since 2018. She is a lawyer with a degree in public international law from the London School of Economics, and her admirers regard her as a safe pair of hands with a keen eye for detail. Her critics, on the other hand, refer to her lack of governance or ministerial experience, as well as her occasional interview gaffes. Baerbock claims that because she has never had a ministerial position, she is unaffected by German "status quo" politics, which she wants to change. Despite the obstacles faced by their candidate, the Greens are widely expected to form part of the next government coalition.

In a party that has a history of conflicts between centrists and radicals, Baerbock and her co-leader Robert Habeck have a reputation for imposing discipline. She's managed to deflect attention away from herself and reactionary stereotypes about middle-class Greens attempting to outlaw German sausages and automobiles. Baerbock is more confident now that the debate has moved on to specific policy. Because climate change is such a hot topic among German voters, rival parties are hammering their environmental credentials, boosting the Green Party's chances of becoming the next administration.

Majority, a dream?

After weeks, if not months, of horse-trading and haggling, neither the Social Democrats (SPD) nor the Christian Democrats (CDU) will have enough votes to create a single-party administration. According to pundits, the new German government will be a coalition of three parties. Merkel's uncommon criticism of the SPD, which has been her junior coalition partner since 2013, is considered as evidence of the CDU's poor polling performance. In opinion polling, the SPD has surpassed the CDU for the first time in 15 years.

With fewer than two weeks to go, Laschet's CDU and its Bavarian affiliate, the Christian Social Union (CSU) have dropped six points behind the SPD. The story of this election has been the unexpected rise of the Social Democrats, who are polling at 25%, a comeback from the dead revival. The SPD was written off earlier this year, but Scholz, a political pragmatist, has managed to pull the party back up through his own strong favourability ratings, and is now being backed by pollsters and political pundits to succeed Merkel.

Annalena Baerbock, the Green Party's new leader who was the media's darling at the start of the year, has fallen by the wayside after a series of gaffes and blunders. And Laschet, the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, has had a dreadful year, with the low point, according to pollsters, coming in July when he was caught on camera giggling with aides in the background while accompanying German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on a tour of flood-stricken towns. Laschet dealt another defeat last week when a judge determined that a police eviction ordered by his North Rhine-Westphalia government against environmental demonstrators in 2018 was illegal. During the police operation, an activist died.

Germany's next government will be a coalition, regardless of the outcome after September 26. It will involve either the CDU/CSU or the Social Democrats, as well as the Greens, although there are three additional parties involved: the Free Democrats (FDP), the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the hard-left Die Linke (the Left).

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