Israeli Officials Planned Strike on Nasrallah for Months, Feared He Would Flee

Israel had been tracking the whereabouts of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah for months. The decision to strike him reportedly came this past week after intelligence suggested that Nasrallah was on the verge of relocating, potentially slipping away from Israeli targeting. Three senior Israeli defense officials confirmed to the New York Times that the strike was executed after deliberations. They spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Over 80 bombs were dropped in the targeted airstrike that aimed to eliminate Nasrallah, according to the officials, though they did not specify the weight or types of bombs used. The operation unfolded in mere minutes, signaling the culmination of months of surveillance and planning.

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Nasrallah’s body was reportedly found by Hezbollah operatives early Saturday, along with the body of Ali Karaki, a top Hezbollah military commander, according to intelligence obtained from within Lebanon.

Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death today (Saturday), following the precision Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut yesterday (Friday). The strike is said to be the most significant Israeli action against Hezbollah since the 2006 war, marking the end of an era for the group that Nasrallah led for nearly three decades.

Timing of the strike

The operation was planned earlier in the week, coinciding with ongoing discussions between Israeli political leaders and their American counterparts about a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. It decision to strike was taken just before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left Israel to deliver his speech at the United Nations.

Israeli officials had believed they only had a short window to act before Nasrallah moved to a new, undisclosed location, which would have made targeting him far more difficult.

Potential successor in Hezbollah

One key Hezbollah figure, Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah, was notably absent from the site of the strike. Safieddine has long been seen as a possible successor to Nasrallah. The senior Israeli officials suggested that Safieddine could be announced as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general soon.

The death of Nasrallah represents a major blow to Hezbollah, which has been a dominant force in Lebanon and an adversary of Israel for decades. Israel’s strike highlights the lengths Israel is willing to go, to ensure the safety of its citizens. 

The long-term impact of this strike remains to be seen, but for now, it has removed the chief of one of Israel’s most long-standing enemies from the battlefield. Some scholars believe decapitation strikes seldom lead to change in an organization's behavior. However, some believe that decapitation strikes create deterrence. Whether this decapitation strike will change Hezbollah's behavior, is unclear.