China turns tide in Myanmar politics, Suu Kyi expected to win upcoming November elections

In a series of twists and turns in Myanmar politics leading to the November elections, which may differ in view of COVID-19 pandemic, China seems to be playing to its own advantage. Political analysts are of the opinion that the first and incumbent State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) will win again but not in a landslide victory as it did in the 2015 elections, because of her party losing significant support in ethnic areas of the country.

What remains crucial for her electoral victory is how she and her party juggles between the autonomous army of the country and the powerful northern neighbour China.

Bertil Lintner, a Swedish journalist wrote in the Hong Kong-based daily, "An entirely new paradigm has emerged in Myanmar, one where Suu Kyi is now seen as a trusted ally of Beijing and the military as a nationalistic bulwark against China's strong advances. That's a significant reversal, one that could have implications for stability in the lead-up to polls".

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China was initially suspicious of Suu Kyi for having a pro-democratic approach and her late British husband who was a Tibetologist maintaining contacts with Tibetans in exile. Suu Kyi was under house arrest when the military was ruling Myanmar. The Military then had good relations with China as the latter supplied arms as well as provided diplomatic support at the United Nations.

However, a significant reversal can be seen in today's politics in Myanmar. Suu Kyi, the harbinger of democracy in Myanmar is seen becoming close with China, while the military which once maintained close ties with China is now wary of China's growing advances in the region.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate, has been stripped of awards, one after the other, many of which she earned during her long non-violent struggle for democracy against the abusive military rule. Once a darling of the west, now she has often been condemned by the international community concerning the human rights violations under her rule including the Rohingya ouster, jailed journalists and locked up critics.

In 2017, at the time when the world condemned the Suu Kyi government for siding with the army for the Rohingya ouster, she was given a red carpet treatment by China. Although Myanmar Army's Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited China a week before Suu Kyi, things didn't seem to go well between the Myanmar Army and China, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping calling the China-Myanmar Military relations the best ever.

Economic development remains crucial for Suu Kyi to maintain her popularity ahead of the upcoming elections. However, western financial assistance comes with conditions of improvements with respect to human rights. This has pushed Suu Kyi closer to China for assistance. In January 2020, Xi Jinping visited Myanmar with 33 bilateral agreements which once implemented will lead Myanmar closer to China than ever. The bilateral projects include high-speed rail and deep-sea projects and strengthening of the so-called China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which aims to give China direct access to the Indian Ocean. The agreements were crucial parts of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which Myanmar joined as a founding member in 2015. 

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'China's double-game in Myanmar' 

However, the Myanmar Army, that considers itself as the sole defender of sovereignty, is apprehensive of China's expansionist policy which can be seen through rapid economic and infrastructure expansion in Myanmar. 

Also, the Military is extremely displeased with the Chinese-made arms and ammunition found with the insurgent groups such as  Palaung Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and AA which they procure through the United Wa State Army (UWSA). UWSA is Myanmar's strongest and best-armed ethnic army which has a long-time close relationship with China. Military leadership is of the opinion that Suu Kyi is taking the country too close to China without analysing the possible threat of China's generosity.

Asia Times said, "China's double-game in Myanmar, where it serves as both an armed conflict mediator and supplier of arms to insurgents, is a long-worn carrot and a stick approach to get what it wants, namely the CMEC and access to Myanmar's rich natural resources including copper, gold, jade, amber and rare earth metals".

On the other hand, China is leaving no stones unturned to extend its cooperation in the times of COVID-19 with the donation of medical supplies and sending two teams of medical experts to Myanmar to help fight the pandemic. China's ambassador to Myanmar Chen Hai asserted in a recent interview with the Myanmar Times that China remains committed to investing in Myanmar despite Covid-19. For the first time, China's increasing influence in the country is touted to become a political issue and is seemingly in favour of Suu Kyi and her party NLD than the military's aligned United Solidarity and Development Party.

(With ANI inputs)