Russia-Ukraine tension: Could there be an invasion post Beijing Olympics?

Amid chaotic announcements from western countries, US officials admitted that it is possible that Russia could invade Ukraine at any point in time. Though US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a security alert saying Moscow could invade Ukraine during the current Beijing Winter Olympics, some US officials do not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a final decision yet. It is worth mentioning that the chaotic situation arose after US intelligence reports claimed Russian forces have reportedly made all preparations to "invade Ukraine". However, Russian President Vladimir Putin refuted US intelligence reports and called the allegations "baseless" on multiple occasions. 

What is the current situation?

On Thursday, Russia started major military drills with close ally Belarus, reported NBC News. The latest action from Russia came despite the Western countries pushing to sort out the issue diplomatically. As per the media reports, at least tens of thousands of troops, weapons systems and other forces are conducting joint exercises near the Ukrainian border. Apart from assembling near the Ukrainian border, Russian warships arrived in the Black Sea for naval drills, a move that Kyiv labelled part of a "hybrid war." Though Moscow claimed the assembling of troops only meant for military and naval drills, the western countries raised concerns Moscow could use them to execute their plan. Irrespective of western claims, Russia asserted the military and naval drills would not continue after February 20. Reacting to the Russian troops assembling at the border areas of Ukraine, the US officials said the action from Moscow resembles they are already made full proof plans to invade Ukraine. According to the NBC sources, in addition to the troop build-up, Moscow has brought in Iskander missiles, a naval presence with land-attack cruise missiles and additional logistical support, including medical.

Possibilities of Russian attack

According to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, there are very high possibilities that Russia could attack Ukraine, however, he did not believe the attack could happen after the Winter Olympics.

"I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information, but I do want to be clear, it could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics," NBC News quoted Sullivan as saying.

Further, he added that US intelligence officials do not believe Putin has made a final decision on whether to invade Ukraine. He, however, added the US has enough evidence and intelligence reports that is enough to raise serious concern. 

On Friday, when the reporters asked about the possibilities of attack, he said, "It is clear to us that there is a very specific probability that Moscow will decide to perform militarily and there is reason to assume that could happen on a reasonably swift timeframe." However, when asked about the timeframe of the attack, he denied answering the question and said he could not pinpoint the day or the hour of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Further, Sullivan maintained the intelligence reports also suggest that the invasion could take place even "before the Olympics". 

What is the Biden administration doing to tackle the situation?

Since the tension between Russia and Ukraine reached a new height, the United States officials have been holding talks with their Russian counterparts to ease the situation. Despite multiple telephonic conversations between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Putin, it seems that the talks did not turn productive. On Saturday, both the leaders held a telephonic conversation on the issue, but that too did not serve the desired results. Though the Biden administration on Sunday reiterated that the war could start on Wednesday, Sullivan said, "We don’t know exactly what is going to happen, but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough."

Ukraine evacuation and other plans

On Saturday, the Ukrainian mayor, Vitaly Klichko said that the officials are working continuously to prevent an emergency situation in the country. According to him, the country has made a plan to counter the Russian aggression and added it would act in accordance with the plan. He said that the Ukrainian diplomats are in touch with all key partners, and has been receiving necessary security information, which will allow Kyiv to adopt timely actions. "City services are already working to prevent an emergency situation of a military nature. Our efforts are directed at preventing or overcoming possible provocations and withstanding a military attack. We act in accordance with a clear plan," TASS news agency quoted Klichko as saying. 

Image: AP