Can PM Modi's Ukraine Visit Be A Step Towards Peace? Here's What is on Agenda

Kyiv: Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Ukrainian capital, Kyiv on Friday, after a concluding visit to Poland.  

PM Modi is visiting war-torn Ukraine for the first time since Moscow's invasion of Kyiv. This visit also represents the first time an Indian Prime Minister will visit Ukraine since diplomatic relations were established 30 years ago. 

Prime Minister  Modi on Wednesday embarked on a historic and significant two-nation visit to Poland and Ukraine. The Prime Minister first landed in Poland, from August 21 and then he headed to Kyiv on August 23, the Ministry of External Affairs said on its website. 

What’s on the Agenda?

During the visit, the two leaders are set to discuss cooperation in defense, economic and business relations, and advancements in science and technology. Zelenskyy’s office has confirmed Modi’s trip and gave indications of ‘multiple cooperation agreements and bilateral and multilateral issues’ will be addressed.

It’s noteworthy that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy previously criticized Modi’s two-day visit to Moscow and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in July. Ukraine and its Western allies have expressed concerns over the strong ties between India and Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Currently, a peace process between Moscow and Kyiv seems unlikely, with the war continuing and both sides far apart on cease-fire terms. Ukraine insists on the withdrawal of Russian forces from its territory before any negotiations can commence, while Moscow, which declared four Ukrainian regions as part of Russia in late 2022, maintains it will not give up these areas.

Why is Modi visiting Ukraine?

Analysts say the timing of the trip is aimed at controlling fallout from the Indian leader's July 8-9 trip to Russia.

That trip coincided with a NATO leaders gathering in Washington and Russian missile strikes on a hospital in Ukraine that killed scores of people, drawing strong criticism from Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian leader called Modi's meeting "a huge disappointment" and "a devastating blow to peace efforts" after the Indian leader was seen hugging Putin.

While Modi did not address the missile strikes directly, he alluded to the bloodshed while sitting next to Putin, and condemned any attack that harms innocent people.

What about India's ties to Ukraine?

Bilateral trade between India and Ukraine is much lower, at about at $3 billion before the invasion, but Modi and Zelenskyy have interacted since at the sidelines of global events and the Ukrainian foreign minister also visited New Delhi earlier this year.

India has also provided several consignments of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since the invasion.
Analysts say Zelenskyy is unlikely to raise Modi's meeting with Putin - at least publicly.

But Modi's Moscow visit and the India-Russia relationship will be a "strong undertone" to his Ukraine trip, even if it not explicitly mentioned in public statements, added Chietigj Bajpaee, who researches South Asia at the Chatham House think tank.

What are India's ties to Russia?

India and Russia have had strong ties since the Cold War, and New Delhi's importance as a key trading partner for Moscow has grown since the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022.

India has joined China in becoming a key buyer of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies that shut most Western markets off to Russian exports.

Modi's visit to Moscow was seen by analysts as reinforcing their partnership, especially since Russia remains a crucial trade and defense partner. Some 60% of India's military systems and hardware is of Russian origin, and New Delhi now gets more than 40% of its oil imports from Russia.

How will this trip be perceived?

The trip is likely to be well-received in the U.S. and other Western countries that had been critical of Modi's meeting with Putin in July, Grossman said.
For Modi, this trip is an opportunity "to engage Zelenskyy and secure Indian interests there, push back against Russian overreach and placate the West," Grossman added.

But while the trip will offer some reassurance to the West, it will remain clear that India maintains a closer relationship with Moscow and "Modi's visit will not change this perception," Bajpaee said.

Modi is unlikely to use this visit to seek a role for India as a peacemaker in the conflict, which some had speculated it would do at the onset of the war given New Delhi's ties to Russia and emerging stature globally.

with inputs from AP