Ajay Bagga on India’s $20 Trillion Dream: Coffee Can Investing, Demographic Edge, and Market Growth

Market veteran Ajay Bagga painted a bullish picture of India’s future, telling audiences at the Republic Leadership Conclave that the country is well-positioned to grow from its current $4 trillion economy to $18–20 trillion by 2047.

“Even if we don’t grow as fast as China did, there’s a very good chance that by 2047 we will be an $18 to $19 trillion economy,” Bagga said.

He emphasized that India’s macroeconomic indicators are in good shape, inflation is down, unemployment is lower, exports are rising, and the current account deficit is narrowing.

The Power of Compounding Knowledge
Bagga shared his personal discipline of reading across eight financial papers daily to stay ahead of the curve.
“Just like money, even knowledge compounds. I don’t read the same article twice in different publications, I process once and move on,” he said, explaining how this habit helps him speed-read, assimilate, and form his own market interpretations.

He encouraged young professionals to build the habit of reading and digesting information, saying it is essential at every stage of a career, but especially early on.

Coffee Can Investing: The Forgotten Secret
Before diving into market outlook, Bagga explained the concept of coffee can investing, which he credited for some of the largest wealth creation stories.

“There was this advisor called Kirby in the US… the client’s husband never sold the stocks Kirby advised her to buy. One stock went from $5,000 to $800,000. That’s the essence of coffee can investing — buy quality, put it away, forget it.”

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Bagga revealed that he himself had unknowingly followed this strategy when he invested ₹25,000 in a Tata Mutual Fund 25 years ago, which has now grown to ₹3 lakh.

India as an Asset Class
Bagga urged investors to stay invested in India’s growth story, reminding them of the SENSEX’s 100x journey since 1979.

“India itself is an asset class. Don’t lose that opportunity. Just buy an ETF and keep investing every month — ₹5,000, ₹10,000, whatever you can afford. Come 2047, that money will be worth five, six, even ten times.”

He also pointed out that Indian investors are now driving the markets more than foreign investors.

“This year, Indians have bought $53 billion while foreigners sold $16 billion. It’s very good that Indians are taking charge of our markets,” he said.

Demographic Advantage: India’s Biggest Edge
Bagga closed with a powerful reminder of India’s youth-driven growth potential.

“The average age of India today is 29 years, compared to China’s 43, Europe’s 45, and Japan’s 53. We have a 20-30 year window to make India a $20 trillion economy before we age as well.”

“There is so much going for us. This is the time to focus on positives and let compounding work in your favor.”

He urged audiences to look at the glass half full and not be distracted by short-term market volatility.