Fusion Of Satellites, Connectivity & AI: Is Nomura Bullish On Nasdaq-Listed SpaceX?
"Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers as of 31 March 2026, 105% higher year-on-year, driven by global expansion as well as the addition of lower-priced service plans," according to a brokerage note.
- Republic Business
- 3 min read
After Elon Musk owned SpaceX shares surged 19% on its market debut in Nasdaq, Nomura has forecasted an acceleration in suppliers' content growth, triggering an upgrade cycle for suppliers from late 2026 to 2028.
According to the rocket launcher's prospectus, SpaceX has launched over 10,000 Starlink satellites as of 1Q26, and has set an aggressive target to launch 42,000 satellites by 2030E.
The company is also planning to upgrade its current satellites to V3 (carried by Starship V3) later this year.
This new generation of satellites represents a major architecture overhaul vs V2 Mini. Each full Starship launch carrying V3 satellites injects 60 Terabits per second (Tbps) of capacity into the constellation – over 20 times the capacity added by a Falcon 9 launching V2 Minis, according to the SpaceX management.
"We believe substantial spec upgrades by global satellite majors should accelerate suppliers’ content growth, triggering an upgrade cycle for suppliers from late 2026 to 2028F," Nomura said.
Why Starlink Is SpaceX's North Star?
According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, connectivity was the only segment (in contrast to the Space and AI segments) where the company generated positive operating profits during 2023-1Q26. The steady revenue growth and rising profits (since 2023) within Connectivity have been supported by subscriber growth, growing enterprise adoption, and continued improvement in network efficiency.
"Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers as of 31 March 2026, 105% higher year-on-year, driven by global expansion as well as the addition of lower-priced service plans, despite ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) declining to USD66 in 1Q26 from USD86 in 1Q25," as per a brokerage note.
"The rapid growth in subscribers supported the growth of ground user terminals, as per the prospectus," it said.
Where Did Elon Musk Direct SpaceX's Capex?
SpaceX’s "capital expenditure grew 144%/86% in 1Q26/2025 mainly driven by rising investments in the AI segment, which accounted for 61%/76% total capex in 1Q26/2025," according to the SpaceX's IPO prospectus.
On the other end, SpaceX estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of $ 28.5 trillion, with $ 370 billion from Space, $1.6 trillion from connectivity, and $26.5 trillion from AI.
Why SpaceX Topped Saudi Aramco As The Biggest IPO-Ever?
With over 75% of active satellites in orbit are owned and operated by SpaceX, we introduce the business model of SpaceX, which is stated in its IPO prospectus as a reference for the business models of satellite companies. SpaceX claims itself to be the only company building the integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the future across space, connectivity, and AI.
Space: SpaceX designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide high cadence, reliable, and affordable access to space at large scale. It offers launch services to commercial, civil, international and government customers through Falcon rockets, besides supporting its other businesses (Starlink consumer broadband/Starlink mobile), according to SpaceX's IPO prospectus.
Connectivity: Starlink service has been activated for customers since 2020. As of 31 March 2026, there were ~9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) managed by the company to provide broadband data and communication network for customers ranging from consumer, enterprise and government across 164 countries, territories, and other markets.
AI: SpaceX merged xAI in early 2026. The company’s integrated AI platform includes Grok (its truth-seeking frontier model), AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X (its real-time information platform), and AI computational infrastructure.
Published By : Nitin Waghela
Published On: 17 June 2026 at 15:07 IST