HDFC Bank Share Price Near Rs 2,000 - Brokerages Say Rs 2,300 Next! Should You Invest Now?

Shares of HDFC Bank, India's largest private sector lender, were in the green on Monday after the bank reported a 12% year-on-year rise in net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q1FY26). 

The upbeat earnings and positive forward guidance pushed the stock higher on both NSE and BSE during early trade.

HDFC Bank Share Price Today 
On the BSE, HDFC Bank stock opened at Rs 1,976.95 and surged to an intraday high of Rs 2,001.90. At 11:10 AM, the stock was trading at Rs 1,994.40, up 37.00 or 1.89%.
A similar trend was observed on the NSE, where the stock opened at Rs 1,978.20, reached the same high of Rs 2,001.90, and traded at Rs 1,995.20, rising 37.80 or 1.93%, as of 11:11 AM.

HDFC Bank Share Price Target
Brokerage house Emkay Global Financial Services has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on HDFC Bank, revising its target price (TP) to Rs 2,300, a 5% increase from its earlier target. The stock is currently trading around Rs 1,957 levels, implying a significant upside potential.

“HDFC Bank is gradually stepping up credit growth, although margin slipped by 23bps QoQ from a higher base in Q4 due to swift rate cuts and lower interest on IT refund,” Emkay stated in its report.

Emkay highlighted the bank’s prudent decision to utilize one-off gains from the HDB Financial Services Offer-for-Sale (OFS) to shore up its floating/contingent provision buffer by Rs 10,700 crore, taking the total buffer to Rs 36,600 crore or 1.4% of total loans.

Credit Growth Picking Up Pace
The bank’s credit growth improved to 7.7% in Q1FY26 from a low of 3% in Q3FY25, primarily driven by an accelerated push in the retail credit segment. Growth is expected to further improve in the second half of FY26 and even outpace the system in FY27, the report said.

“With liquidity improving, HDFC Bank guides to further accelerate growth in H2FY26, in line with the system, and outpace the system growth in FY27 and thus reduce the growth gap with large peers,” the brokerage added.

Emkay expects the shift in portfolio mix toward retail and SME loans, coupled with substitution of high-cost eHDFCL borrowings with low-cost deposits, to support a recovery in margins over FY27–28.

Margin Compression in Q1, Recovery Ahead
The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) on interest-earning assets fell by 23bps QoQ to 3.4%, primarily due to rate cuts and lower interest on income tax refunds.
While margin pressure is expected to continue in Q2, Emkay forecasts stabilization and improvement in the second half of the fiscal year, aided by lower Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), deposit rate cuts, and redemption of high-cost borrowings.

Asset Quality and Provisioning
Gross NPA (GNPA) ratio rose marginally by 7bps QoQ to 1.4%, due to seasonal slippages in Kisan Credit Card (KCC) loans. However, GNPA excluding agri loans remained stable at 1.14%.
Although the specific Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) remained slightly below comfort levels at 67%, the bank’s large counter-cyclical provisioning offers a cushion against potential asset quality shocks.

“The bank utilized one-off gains from the HDB Fin stake sale in the IPO to shore-up the floating/contingent provision buffer to the tune of ₹107bn in Q1, with o/s now at ₹366bn/1.4% of loans/Rs48 per share,” Emkay noted.

To reward shareholders, HDFC Bank has announced a special dividend of 500% and a 1:1 bonus issue, a move that has further boosted investor sentiment.

Long-Term Outlook and Risks
Emkay expects the bank’s Return on Assets (RoA) to improve from 1.8% to 1.9–2.0% over FY27–28E, and Return on Equity (RoE) to rise to 15–16%, driven by operational leverage and margin expansion.

However, the report also flagged potential downside risks including:
Slower-than-expected loan growth
Continued NIM contraction due to macro or regulatory pressures
Attrition in key management personnel (KMP)

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HDFC Bank’s Q1FY26 performance has rekindled investor interest with visible signs of credit growth revival, proactive provisioning, and long-term profitability drivers in place. With strong backing from brokerages like Emkay, which see a target price of Rs 2,300, the bank seems poised for a promising FY26 and beyond.
 

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