Petrol, Diesel Rates Hike: How Long Will India's Oil Price Shock Last?

Amid the ongoing global oil crisis, Dipanwita Mazumdar, Bank of Baroda Economist, revealed that oil prices have risen by 39.7% with high crude oil rates generally lasting for 6-7 months.

"Over the past 54 years, we found that on 18 out of 54 occasions, crude prices rose more than 20% in a year," she noted.

In a recently conducted Bank of Baroda analysis, the period FY07-16 showed significant volatility in oil prices.

"We have seen that the crude price shock is concentrated in certain years and the high of crude price generally lasts for 6-7 months," according to the BoB economist.

These observations come in the light of the latest petrol, diesel price hike by Rs 3 respectively. Ahead of the full price surge, PM Narendra Modi has urged citizens to reduce their fuel consumption, prefer work from home due to the country's rising import bill. The fresh increase ends a four-year  fuel price revision freeze by state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs).

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Meanwhile, Union Minister Kiren Rijjiju said that several countries have increased fuel price from 20% to nearly 100%, however, India has limited the hike to 3.2% for petrol and 3.4% for diesel.

On the other hand, Dow Chairman & CEO, Jim Fitterling, noted that even if Strait of Hormuz (SOH) reopens today, it will take 275 days or more to resume normal operations due to a logistics backlog.

This comes after Morgan Stanley stated that it expects "India to be a big gainer in a multi-polar world, with manufacturing share in GDP likely to rise in the coming decade."

"India's key leverage is its growing consumer base, with rising incomes of a relatively young population. Indeed, India was 18% of global GDP growth in 2025, a number that is likely to be higher in the coming years," it said.