Stock Market Today: Will Nifty50, BSE Sensex Break Out or Stay Flat? What Investors Should Watch Amid Trump Tariffs and Global Cues

Indian equities took a breather on Wednesday, ending their recent winning streak, as global tensions resurfaced following US President Donald Trump’s tariff shock.

The Nifty 50 dipped 46.4 points to close at 25,476.10, while the Sensex dropped 176.43 points to 83,536.08, reflecting marginal losses amid a lack of strong domestic cues.
While volatility was low, experts see this as a pause, not a reversal.

“Over the past five trading sessions, the benchmark Nifty index has been confined to a narrow consolidation band of just 256 points,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research (Equity) at SBI Securities. “This phase has been marked by particularly tight intraday ranges on several days, reflecting a noticeable lack of momentum.”

Technical Outlook: Nifty in Tight Range But Bullish Momentum Intact
Shah emphasized the technical resilience of the Nifty despite the consolidation. The index remains above key short- and long-term moving averages, which are aligned in a bullish sequence—a sign of underlying strength.
Key Nifty levels to watch today:
Immediate Support: 25,360–25,330

Next Major Support: 25,200

Resistance Zone: 25,570–25,600
Breakout Target: 25,750–25,900

Bank Nifty Support and Resistance: Signs of Upside Ahead
Bank Nifty is also showing encouraging signs after recently taking support near its 20-day EMA. According to Shah:
“Going ahead, the 20-day EMA zone of 56,800–56,700 will act as immediate support for the index. A sustainable move above 57,500 can spark a rally up to 58,200, followed by 58,600 in the short term.”

Sensex Outlook: Narrow Candle, Crucial Levels in Play
The Sensex, meanwhile, formed a small-bodied candle, signalling indecision. However, key levels remain well-defined:
Resistance Zone: 83,900–84,000

Support Zone: 83,100–83,000

“Technically, Nifty Private Bank, Financial Services, Oil & Gas, Infrastructure, CPSE, PSE and India Tourism are likely to outperform in the short term,” said Shah.

Global Cues: Trump’s Tariff Barrage Clouds Sentiment
The biggest geopolitical overhang came late Wednesday, when Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil, retaliating against the South American country’s legal actions against former President Jair Bolsonaro and citing an “unfair” trade relationship.

“It has been far from reciprocal,” Trump said in a public statement, referencing ongoing trade imbalances. The tariffs are set to kick in from August 1, part of a broader wave of duties targeting over 20 countries, including Japan and South Korea.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva responded firmly, saying the country would take reciprocal measures under Brazil’s economic reciprocity law.

US Markets Rise on AI Optimism, Shrug Off Tariffs
Interestingly, Wall Street appeared to shake off the tariff developments, closing in the green across all three major indices:
Nasdaq Composite: +0.9% (record close)
S&P 500: +0.6%
Dow Jones: +0.5%

The rally was largely powered by investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. Nvidia surged nearly 2%, briefly touching a record $4 trillion market cap, making it the world’s most valuable public company.

“On Wednesday, all major US indices closed in the green,” said Shah. “Technically, the S&P 500 is bullish as it trades above its crucial moving averages. The index may test the 6,350 level, with support at 6,200–6,180.”

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Commodities & Currency Check: Brent, Dollar Index
While equity markets reacted with restraint, commodities remained flat:
Brent Crude: Flat; trend sideways
Resistance: $71–71.50 (200-day EMA)
Support: $67.50–67.30

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Closed in red for the second straight session
Resistance: 97.70–97.80 (20-day EMA)
Support: 97–96.80

“The Dollar Index failed to hold above its 20-day EMA, indicating short-term weakness,” Shah noted.

FII/DII Activity: Institutions Continue Buying
Despite global headwinds, institutional players showed confidence in Indian markets:
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net buyers of ₹77 crore
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net buyers of ₹920.83 crore

Asia-Pacific Markets: Mixed Trade on Tariff Uncertainty
Across Asia, markets traded mixed after Trump ruled out any deadline extension on tariffs, reinforcing uncertainty ahead of the August 1 implementation.

Stock Market Today Prediction: Cautiously Bullish
While global trade tensions pose a risk to sentiment, India’s technical setup remains strong. With Nifty and Bank Nifty holding key support zones and U.S. markets buoyed by AI euphoria, analysts expect a potential breakout if the indices manage to sustain above resistance levels.

Investors should watch for movement beyond Nifty 25,600, Bank Nifty 57,500, and Sensex 84,000 for signs of strong bullish continuation. Until then, the market is likely to remain range-bound, seeking direction from global and domestic triggers.
 

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