Ethnic Clashes, Insurgency, and Political Collapse: Will President’s Rule End the Violence in Manipur?

Imphal, Manipur - For nearly two years, the northeastern state of Manipur has been gripped by ethnic violence, political instability, and insurgent activities, making it one of India’s most volatile regions. The conflict, which initially erupted in May 2023, has claimed more than 260 lives and displaced nearly 60,000 people. In an attempt to restore normalcy, the central government recently imposed President’s Rule, placing Manipur directly under its control.

While this move offers an opportunity to de-escalate tensions, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, including deep-rooted ethnic hostilities, armed insurgencies, and the need for urgent political reconciliation.

Latest on-ground Intel

In a series of intelligence-driven operations, the Indian Army and Assam Rifles, under the command of Spear Corps, conducted multiple raids across Manipur, leading to significant recoveries of weapons, ammunition, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Two militants from hill and valley-based insurgent groups were also apprehended as security forces intensified efforts to stabilize the violence-hit state.

According to an official statement, the joint operations were launched in the districts of Tengnoupal, Imphal East, and Churachandpur on Saturday. Acting on credible intelligence, the security forces seized eight firearms, IEDs, ammunition, and other war-like stores. The arrested militants were linked to insurgent groups operating in the region.

The Ethnic Conflict: Meitei vs. Kuki-Zo

At the heart of the crisis is the long-standing conflict between the majority Meitei community—who primarily inhabit the Imphal Valley—and the Kuki-Zo tribes, who reside in the surrounding hill districts. The flashpoint for the current violence was a court ruling in early 2023 that supported the Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, a designation that offers affirmative action benefits in education, employment, and land ownership.

The Kuki-Zo community fiercely opposed this move, arguing that the Meitei already dominated political and economic structures in the state. What began as a peaceful tribal protest in May 2023 soon escalated into large-scale riots, targeted killings, and armed clashes. The situation worsened when state police forces and local militias were seen taking sides, further widening the ethnic divide.

Security Forces Push to Usher Peace in the Northeast

Further counter-insurgency operations were carried out in the Maojang village area of Tengnoupal district on February 21, where Assam Rifles, in coordination with Manipur Police, recovered five IEDs. These explosives were destroyed on-site after necessary safety measures were taken.

On February 22, another joint operation in Phunlo Maring, located in the Imphal East district, resulted in the seizure of a substantial cache of weapons, including a Bolt Action Rifle, five 9mm pistols, a 9mm Carbine Machine Gun (CMG), a country-made machine gun, grenades, and additional ammunition.

In a parallel intelligence-based operation conducted in Moirang, the Indian Army and Manipur Police apprehended a cadre belonging to the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP). Upon initial interrogation, the militant admitted allegiance to the proscribed outfit.

The crackdown also dealt a major blow to insurgent activities as Assam Rifles arrested a key operative of the Chin Kuki Mizo Army (CKMA), a non-Suspension of Operations (SoO) group. Acting on technical intelligence inputs, security forces tracked and surrounded the individual before taking him into custody. His involvement in illegal activities was confirmed during preliminary questioning.

All detained militants and confiscated arms have been handed over to Manipur Police for further investigation.

The Role of Armed Groups and Insurgent Factions

Adding fuel to the fire is the resurgence of insurgent groups. Manipur has long been home to several militant outfits, both from the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. These groups, many of which had been dormant for years, have re-emerged amid the chaos.

• Meitei-aligned militias, such as Arambai Tenggol and other radical groups, have been accused of looting police armouries and targeting Kuki-Zo settlements.
• Kuki-Zo insurgent groups, including the Kuki National Army (KNA) and the Chin Kuki Mizo Army (CKMA), have also taken up arms, allegedly receiving support from across the border in Myanmar.

The Indian Army, Assam Rifles, and Manipur Police have launched several joint operations in recent months, resulting in the seizure of illegal weapons, IEDs, and arrests of insurgent cadres. However, the security vacuum left by political instability has allowed these groups to thrive, further complicating peace efforts.

Imposition of President’s Rule: A Turning Point?

Following the resignation of Manipur’s Chief Minister N. Biren Singh in early February 2025, the Indian government imposed President’s Rule, effectively bringing the state under central administration. This decision was driven by:

• The failure of the state government to control violence and maintain neutrality.
• The increasing communal polarization within state institutions, including the police and judiciary.
• The worsening security situation, with insurgent attacks, village defence forces, and civilian casualties rising.

While the President’s Rule ensures direct federal intervention, its effectiveness depends on how decisively New Delhi acts.

Key Challenges for the Central Government

1. Disarmament of Armed Groups: A major concern is the proliferation of illegal firearms. Since the violence began, hundreds of weapons, including assault rifles, machine guns, and explosives, have been looted from police armouries. Disarming militant groups and local militias is essential for restoring law and order.

2. Confidence-Building Measures Between Communities: The state remains deeply polarized, with ethnic buffer zones dividing Meitei and Kuki-Zo areas. Restoring inter-community trust is critical, but past attempts—such as peace committees—have failed due to political bias. A neutral reconciliation panel, inclusive of civil society, women’s organizations, and religious leaders may help restart dialogue.

3. Addressing the Root Causes of Conflict: The demand for Scheduled Tribe status for Meiteis remains a contentious issue. Instead of granting the Meitei ST status—an option that has already been rejected twice—New Delhi could consider: 

• Special land protection laws to address Meitei concerns about non-Manipuris acquiring land in the valley.
• Granting greater administrative autonomy to Kuki-Zo areas under the model of Autonomous District Councils, as seen in Assam, Meghalaya, and Mizoram.

4. Containing the Myanmar Factor: Manipur’s unrest is further complicated by developments in Myanmar, where a military coup and ethnic conflicts have displaced thousands. Many Chin refugees (closely related to the Kuki-Zo) have crossed into Manipur, raising concerns among Meiteis about illegal immigration and cross-border militancy. Stronger border security measures are required to prevent further instability.

What Lies Ahead? Scenarios for Manipur’s Future

If the Indian government acts swiftly to disarm militant groups, neutralize radical elements, and establish an impartial peace committee, there is hope for de-escalation. A negotiated political solution, possibly granting more autonomy to the Kuki-Zo while addressing Meitei concerns, could pave the way for long-term stability.

If tensions persist, Manipur could remain divided into ethnic enclaves, with the Indian Army continuing to act as a buffer between the two communities. This would freeze the conflict but not resolve it, making it susceptible to flare-ups in the future.

If armed groups from both sides continue to grow in strength and external actors, including Myanmar-based outfits, get involved, the conflict could evolve into a protracted insurgency, drawing parallels with past separatist movements in the Northeast. This would demand an even harsher military response from the Indian government.