Exclusive/ Guntur Kaaram box office prediction day 1: Trade experts divided over film's opening day collection

Guntur Kaaram, one of the highest anticipated films of Mahesh Babu after the 2022 film Sarkaru Vaari Paata, is all set to hit the theaters on January 12, during the Sankranthi/Pongal weekend. The twist here is that along with the film is a lineup of films starring OGs like Nagarjuna (Saindhav) and Venkatesh Daggubati (Naa Saami Ranga) in the lead roles. In between all this, we also have a not so big of a star Teja Sajja trying his luck and clashing with the Mahesh Babu starrer on the same day. With a lineup of releases and divisions on the screens, how will Mahesh Babu's film perform at the box office on its opening day and the weekend is what we have anticipated in this article with opinions from the trade experts.

How will Mahesh Babu starrer perform at the box office on its opening day?

According to experts, the Mahesh Babu starrer Guntur Kaaram, directed by Ala Vaikunthapurramuloo famed director Trivikram Srinivas, will open to quite good numbers at the Indian box office, especially in the Telugu-speaking states - Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. However, the number predicted by the trade experts ranges from ₹35 crores to ₹75 crores -- a divided opinion.

Trade expert analyst Sumit Kadel says, " I think the film will open in the range of approximately ₹40 to ₹50 crore gross across India and the major chunk of the collection will come from the domestic market, the local market, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana."

Talking about the film's first-weekend collection, Kadel added, "The weekend collections will depend on the audience's reception, audience word of mouth. If the film is met with positive word of mouth, then I think Guntur Kaaram will do approximately ₹70 to ₹90 crore on its first weekend at the domestic box office. I am talking about gross collection and I am not aware of the film's budget but I think that if it touches approximately 300 to 400 crore at the global box office, then it will be a profitable venture for the producers."

Meanwhile, industry tracker Ramesh Bala predicted that the film will open to just ₹35 crores globally. Bala said, "Guntur Kaaram is estimated to earn 15-20 crores gross in India, and an additional 10 crore from overseas markets. Guntur Kaaram has a high budget of 125-150 crores, estimated. So to theatrically recover all its costs from theatrical revenue alone, Guntur Kaaram needs to do anywhere around 250 crore gross or more. While the officials haven’t released an official screen count for all the films, it is estimated that Guntur Kaaram will have almost 3 times as many screens as Hanu Man and more than twice the screen count for films like Saindhav and Naa Saami Ranga."

Ramesh Bala also placed great importance on word of mouth for collections from January 15 onwards.

When Republic spoke to another film tracker Manobal Vijayabalan, he said, "Guntur Kaaram is expected to mint around ₹35 crore from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and above ₹75 cr gross from all over the world on Day 1."

Speaking about the film's opening week collection, Manobala said, "Weekend numbers will purely depend on word of mouth. Movie has done a business of around ₹130 crore. Hence, the profit margin is around ₹ 260 crores gross all over the world."

How much will the four-way clash impact Guntur Kaaram?

While Guntur Kaaram and HanuMan will release on January 12, Venkatesh Daggubati's Saindhav and Nagarjuna starrer Naa Saami Ranga will release on January 13 and 14, respectively. Speaking about the clash, Ramesh Bala said, "Mahesh Babu’s stardom far supersedes those of Nagarjuna and Venkatesh, so Guntur Kaaram is expected to have an obvious lead in terms of collections."

He added, "While Guntur Kaaram might collect ₹15-20 crores, Saindhav and Naa Saami Ranga will play somewhere in the range of ₹5-10 crores. Hanu Man, on the other hand, is expected to earn ₹5 crores at best," despite the all-India publicity.

On the other hand, Sumit Kadel said, "It (Hanuman) has a moderate budget and as far as the clash is concerned with Guntur Karam, yes the business will get affected for sure because Guntur Karam is an event film from the Telugu film industry starring superstar Mahesh Babu. So it (HanuMan) will struggle to get a good amount of shows at big cities, metros, and interiors of Andhra Pradesh, Nithyalangana."

However, the trade analyst noted that if the film gets a good response and word of mouth, it might earn well.

Guntur Kaaram also features SreeLeela in the lead role.