TMC Breakup On Cards? 50+MLAs Meet Expelled Leaders Sandipan & Ritabrata, Majority Wants to Dump Mamata, Abhishek

New Delhi: Just weeks after losing power in West Bengal to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is facing significant internal instability as the BJP has established itself as a dominant political force in the state, and its influence is projected to grow further, while the TMC appears to be fracturing from within.

According to reports, at least 50 party MLAs are reportedly in contact with two lawmakers- Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha- previously expelled by the party on Monday following explosive revelations by Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, who stated that the two had reported the alleged forgery of their signatures by the party.

Amid these developments, senior leader and MLA Kunal Ghosh also issued a plea, "with folded hands," to those MLAs he believes are being misled into rebelling against the party leadership. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee also addressed the issue directly in a Facebook Live session on Monday, acknowledging that there is an active plot to fracture the party.

The Maharashtra Model

Notably, the political landscape in West Bengal is also facing a potential tectonic shift, drawing striking parallels to the 2022 Maharashtra political crisis that saw the Shiv Sena leadership upended as the current unrest mirrors the events that saw Eknath Shinde take control of the Shiv Sena. 

In that instance, a majority of the party’s MLAs revolted against then-leader Uddhav Thackeray, culminating in a dramatic breakaway following a high-stakes trip to Guwahati. Political observers are now questioning if West Bengal is on the verge of a similar "Shinde-style" takeover.

A Growing Rebellion

Since May 4, the day the Bengal Assembly results were declared, the TMC has been in disarray. Significantly, the current rebellion is reportedly being spearheaded by two recently expelled lawmakers, Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha. 

Sources indicate that internal dissatisfaction with the leadership of Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee has reached a boiling point and a clear majority of TMC MLAs are seeking to break away from the leadership of Mamata and Abhishek, as per reports.

The scale of the dissent is significant as of the party's 80 MLAs, current reports suggest that an anti-Abhishek faction, now numbering approximately 52 members, is actively organizing. In contrast, the faction remaining loyal to the current leadership is estimated to hold only 28. 

Persistent rumours suggest Mamata Banerjee is struggling to maintain party unity, fueled by public resentment over corruption, alleged persecution, and deteriorating law and order.

Number game for party symbol

Strikingly, to claim the party name and official election symbol, the rebel faction must secure a two-thirds majority. With 52 out of 80 MLAs reportedly aligned against the current leadership, the rebels appear to have surpassed the critical threshold required to stake a formal claim to the Trinamool Congress identity.

Recent developments suggest the situation is accelerating as reports of late-night clandestine meetings between the dissident MLAs and the expelled duo have also fueled speculation about an imminent split.

It is expected that these 52 MLAs may soon submit formal letters to the Speaker, signaling a definitive break from the party’s core leadership.

There is growing chatter that the anti-Abhishek faction is preparing to approach the Election Commission to claim they are the "real" Trinamool Congress, arguing that they command the support of the majority of the elected representatives.

Why TMC looking fragile?

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) suffered a significant internal setback yesterday when a scheduled meeting of newly elected legislators, which was to be chaired by party supremo and former West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, was abruptly canceled on Sunday.

The proceedings were abandoned after only 20 of the 80 summoned MLAs arrived at Mamata Banerjee’s Kalighat residence in the wake of the recent attack on Mamata Banerjee's nephew and party's general secretary Abhishek Banerjee in Sonarpur and a separate alleged assault on party MP Kalyan Banerjee in Hooghly district.

The unexpectedly low turnout, with nearly 75% of legislators missing, drew immediate attention. The Trinamool Congress, however, downplayed the incident, explaining that the majority of MLAs were occupied with organizing local protests against the authorities in response to the recent political violence involving attacks on Abhishek and Kalyan Banerjee.

As the party teeters on the edge of a historic split, all eyes are on the upcoming legislative tactics. If the rebels follow through on their reported plan to stake a formal claim to the TMC symbol, the Trinamool Congress could face the most significant existential challenge in its history.

The party also faces a critical test of survival as it looks toward the 2029 Lok Sabha and 2031 assembly elections. While the TMC may manage to weather this post-poll turmoil, the long-term political cost of the ordeal remains uncertain.