Asteroid ‘City Killer’ to Hit Mumbai? Here’s the Truth

Asteroid 2024 YR4, dubbed a “city killer, "sparked widespread concern after astronomers initially projected a 1.5% (or 1 in 67) chance of it striking Earth during its close approach on December 22, 2032. NASA and other space agencies worldwide have been closely monitoring its trajectory.

Discovered in December last year, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been under continuous observation by astronomers. Earlier predictions suggested a small possibility of impact during its 2032 flyby. Scientists, however, have been refining their calculations, and the likelihood of a collision is decreasing with each new assessment.

According to a Scientific American report, researchers have simulated the expected impact corridor of 2024 YR4 based on NASA’s assessment. The potential impact zone stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia, covering major population centers such as Bogotá (Colombia), Lagos (Nigeria), and Mumbai (India).

The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide—roughly the size of a large office building—could cause significant localized devastation if it were to strike Earth. In the event of a collision, it could either explode in the atmosphere, breaking into smaller fragments, or create a crater upon impact.

What Are the Chances of an Earth-Asteroid Collision?

Scientists have largely ruled out the possibility of a collision, as updated calculations show the chances decreasing daily and potentially reaching zero soon. Nevertheless, NASA is collaborating with space agencies from China, Russia, and Europe to continue tracking the asteroid’s path and prepare for any potential risks.