Chinese military capabilities at all-time high to invade Taiwan: USCC report

Chinese military capabilities are at an all-time high to invade Taiwan, a newly released annual report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission stated on Wednesday. Describing the year 2020-2021 as a period of ‘dangerous uncertainty,’ that may have weakened the military dimension of the rest of the world to conduct the cross-Strait deterrence, the USCC report warned that PLA has “systematically planned, trained, and built the forces it believes are required to invade the island.” It further stated that the Chinese military may have already achieved the capabilities and advanced training such as conducting air and naval blockade, cyberattacks, and missile strikes in order to invade Taiwan. 

The Chinese government and leader Xi Jinping now likely has, or “will soon have, the initial capability needed to conduct a high-risk invasion of Taiwan if ordered to do so by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders,” USCC stressed. “They will continue enhancing this capability in the coming years,” it added. 

China will sufficiently degrade, isolate, or defeat Taiwan’s defending forces and restrict access and bolster its area-denial capabilities to prevent decisive US intervention. PLA’s current military sea and airlift capacity could carry an initial landing force of 25,000 or more troops, the agency predicted. China has developed substantial military capabilities to deploy the civilian ships for PLA to land additional troops on Taiwan after securing a beachhead. United States’ conventional military forces will not be to deter China’s leaders. A deterrence failure is most likely to occur, as the Chinese leaders believe that the United States “is not militarily capable to defend Taiwan or is politically willing to intervene.” 

“Whether and when to invade Taiwan is a political rather than a military question for CCP leaders,” said the USCC. 

Xi Jinping's potential 2027 transition poses threat to Taiwan

Former Indo-Pacific commander and retired four-star admiral in the United States Navy Adm. Phil Davidson had earlier warned that the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s potential transition in 2027 might prove to be a "potential threat" to Taiwan. The former US armed forces service member “sent shockwaves globally” as he predicted a specific timeline on a possible Taiwan eventuality during his testimony to Congress in March 2021. 

The then admiral leading US Indo-Pacific Command said that China could attempt to take control of Taiwan by the end of the decade, approximately within the ‘next six years’, as he stressed that the United States needed to “rethink” Taiwan’s strategic ambiguity in the Western Pacific.

Image: AP