Talks to free Ukraine's grain exports could take place in Istanbul: Report

For more than two months, Ukraine, the United Nations, the European Union, and intermediaries have been debating the problem of grain exports being blocked in the country due to the ongoing war. Several routes have been suggested by analysts for the export of grain from Ukraine. However, no definitive decision on how to export around 20 and 25 million tonnes of grain has been made, according to various estimates.

The next attempt to free Ukraine's grain exports could take place in Istanbul as early as next week, according to Russian media agency TASS. The Turkish media also reported that a conference with representatives from the UN, Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey, which is serving as a mediator, is scheduled.

Position of international community on grain exports

Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, expressed hope on June 20 that Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine will eventually reach an agreement on seaborne grain exports from Ukraine with the help of the UN. The UN continues to actively address the problem of grain exports from Ukraine, but it is too early to speak about any form of agreement reached, according to Stephane Dujarric, the UN Secretary-official General's spokesperson.

In multiple statements, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly emphasised the lack of progress during the negotiations. However, according to the Turkish newspaper Milliyet, citing Erdogan administration sources, talks between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN to build a grain export corridor will take place in Istanbul next week. President Erdogan of Turkey and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres may attend the meeting, according to the media agency. 

In response to the report, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that negotiations between Moscow and Ankara on building a safe corridor for grain export from Ukraine will follow the Defence Ministry's guidelines, TASS reported. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that he will not attend such a gathering. In his remarks at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week, Putin maintained that Moscow is not impeding food deliveries from Ukraine.

The following are possible export routes that could be explored during the talks

By ship via Odessa

This grain export option will be available only after the port area has been de-mined and Ukrainian-sunk vessels have been raised from the bottom of the Black Sea, according to reports. Further, the grain export via Odessa has been the subject of discussions between Russia and Turkey. Ankara, in particular, intends to construct a dedicated coordination centre in Istanbul. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Moscow is insisting on examining ships arriving in Odessa for prospective armament sales.

Turkish officials stated that they can guarantee the safety of grain export shipments. Milliyet reported citing sources in the Erdogan's administration that the system to follow the plan of Ukrainian grain deliveries is 80-90% ready and can be launched immediately if agreements are reached. This subject is reportedly scheduled to be discussed during the Istanbul meeting of Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations.

Russia is prepared to ensure the safe transit of ships from the Ukrainian-controlled port of Odessa, according to Russian mefia outlets. Russian President Vladimir Putin assured Moscow that the circumstance would not be exploited for a possible marine attack on the city. Kyiv, however, firmly opposes such plans, demanding as a condition the cessation of hostilities and the departure of forces.

Through sea from Berdyansk to Mariupol

Russia is reportedly willing to supply grain exports from the Berdyansk and Mariupol ports, which are under the control of the Donetsk People's Republic and Russian soldiers. Moscow is ready to extend guarantees on peaceful traffic and secure the safety of Berdyansk and Mariupol approaches. Russia also vows to encourage vessel traffic in the Azov and Black Seas. Notably, mine clearance activities in these ports' waters are nearly complete, according to reports.

Rail Routes

According to reports, food could also be exported by train from Ukraine via Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Poland. The route is complicated since railcar bogies must be changed due to the difference in railway gauge between Ukraine (1,520 mm) and Europe (1,435 mm). Swapping bogies takes several hours.

Further, Klaipeda is also accessible via Belarus and changing bogies would not be necessary in this case. However, at the moment, neither the West nor Ukraine are pleased with this alternative because it would entail lifting sanctions against the Belarusian authorities, according to reports.

Image: AP