'Ukraine won't be able to take Crimea anytime soon', Pentagon tells US lawmakers

The Ukrainian military is unlikely to be able to retake Crimea from Russian troops in the near future, according to a report by Politico, which cites a classified briefing given by four senior Defense Department officials to US lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee. Three sources with direct knowledge of the briefing disclosed that the Pentagon does not think Ukraine has the capability to remove Russian troops from the peninsula which was taken by Russia nearly a decade ago. A fourth source stated that the briefing was less clear, but the conclusion was that Ukraine's success in an attack to regain the illegally-occupied territory is uncertain. All four sources requested anonymity in order to reveal information from the classified briefing.

Laura Cooper and Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims were apparently the briefers. The former is deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia and the latter is director of operations on the Joint Staff. The Pentagon declined to comment on the briefing or speculate about future operations when Politico reached out to them. However, they reportedly acknowledged Ukraine's ability to defend its territory and its success in repelling Russian aggression. The House Armed Services declined to comment as well. This assessment aligns with the recent comments made by Gen. Mark Milley, the head of the Joint Chiefs.

US assessment hasn't gone down well in Ukraine

“I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all –– every inch of Ukraine and occupied –– or Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult," Mark Milley had said, during his visit to Germany. The occupation of Crimea by Russian forces has been ongoing since 2014 and the region is heavily guarded by air defenses and a large number of troops.

The question of reclaiming Crimea has been a subject of debate, with Western officials acknowledging that it is part of Ukraine but not providing enough support for Ukraine to reclaim it. Kyiv is said to be upset with a recent statement made by Milley, as they are planning major offensives this spring. The Ukrainians also pointed out that US intelligence about their military capabilities has been inaccurate throughout the ongoing war. An advisor to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Andriy Yermak, recently spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos and stated that a Ukrainian victory is not possible without reclaiming Crimea.