Lebanon Strikes, Hormuz Standoff: US, Iran Set For Peace Talks At Islamabad- Can Shaky Truce Survive?

New Delhi:  Amid a fragile ceasefire, U.S. Vice President JD Vance travelled to Pakistan on Friday for high-stakes negotiations with Iranian representatives. The diplomatic mission arrives at a volatile moment, as ongoing skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah, combined with Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threaten to collapse the truce.

The success of these talks, which aim to secure a permanent end to hostilities, remains uncertain due to several escalating regional conflicts and deep-seated distrust between the parties.

Will talk yield results?

Iranian media outlets have indicated that the scheduled Saturday negotiations are contingent upon Israel halting its military operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump through his social media downplayed Iran's diplomatic standing, arguing that Tehran’s only real leverage is its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz- a critical maritime chokepoint that previously handled a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Compounding the tension, Kuwait has reported being hit by seven drone strikes since Thursday. While Kuwaiti officials have attributed the attacks to Iran and its regional proxies, the Revolutionary Guard has officially denied involvement. However, observers note that Tehran has a documented history of conducting unacknowledged operations throughout the Middle East.

Preparations for the talks between Iran and the U.S. appeared to be moving forward, with Vance boarding Air Force Two for the long flight to Islamabad. 

Israel-Lebanon negotiations

Elsewhere, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon were expected to begin Tuesday in the U.S. capital, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s office said Friday. Beirut is keen to hold direct talks to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah, but under a ceasefire similar to the one with Iran.

Before his departure, Vance said he believed the negotiations with Iran will be “positive.”

But he added, “If they’re going to try and play us, then they’re going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Preps in Islamabad

In Islamabad, security forces locked down key parts of the Pakistani capital, erecting barricades along routes from the airport to the city.

Hours later, the Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad, Iranian state TV reported. The delegation included security, political, military, economic and legal teams. The report said negotiations will begin only if the other side accepts Iran’s preconditions.

Earlier in the day, Qalibaf posted on social media that two points he said had been mutually agreed on-  a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of blocked Iranian assets- have yet to be implemented.

“These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin,” he wrote.

Israel and Lebanon tensions

Israel’s insistence that the ceasefire in Iran does not include a pause in its fighting with Hezbollah has threatened to sink the deal. The militant group joined the war in support of its backer, Iran.

The day the truce was announced, Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes, killing more than 300 people, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. It was the deadliest day in the country since the war began Feb. 28.

Trump said Thursday that he had asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dial back the strikes.

Then on Friday, Israeli warplanes struck near a state security office in the southern town of Nabatieh, killing 13 officers, according to the Lebanese president’s office. Israeli forces said they also hit about 10 rocket launchers in Lebanon that had fired toward northern Israel.

Ntanyahu's rebuke

A day earlier, Netanyahu said he authorized the negotiations with Lebanon with the aim of disarming Hezbollah militants and establishing relations between the neighbors, which have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948.

Aoun’s office confirmed that the two sides were set to negotiate after Lebanon and Israel’s ambassadors to the U.S. held a call with Washington’s ambassador to Lebanon to discuss terms. The U.S. State Department will mediate.

In a first statement since Israel announced direct negotiations with Lebanon, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem urged Lebanese officials to stop offering “free concessions,” but he did not take a clear stance on the talks.

Two days after Israel’s barrage, people sifted through the wreckage of their homes, trying to salvage furniture and personal mementos. Some expressed gratitude that they did not lose loved ones.

“There is no substitute for family,” said Wissam Tabila, 35. “Everything else can be replaced.”

Strait of Hormuz- a sticking point

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices skyrocketing, driven stocks down and roiled the world economy. Tehran’s control over the waterway has proved its biggest strategic advantage in the war.

The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around $97 Friday, up more than 30% since the war started.

Before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait each day-  many carrying oil to Asia. With the ceasefire in place, only 12 have been recorded passing through.

Clout in the negotiations?

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways,” Trump posted Friday. “The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!”

Missile and nuclear programs

Questions also remain over the fate of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, which the U.S. and Israel sought to eliminate in going to war.

The U.S. insists Iran must never be able to build nuclear weapons and wants to remove Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be used to make them. Iran insists its program is peaceful.

Trump has said that the U.S. would work with Iran to remove the uranium, though Tehran has not confirmed that.

Iran War

The human cost of the war continues to mount, with Lebanese authorities reporting nearly 2,000 fatalities and a displacement crisis affecting 1 million residents. Regional instability has claimed further lives in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gulf, while the U.S. mourning the loss of 13 service members.

(With AP inputs)

Also Read: 'They Are Only Alive To Negotiate': Few Hours Before Peace Talks, Trump Threatens Iran Again