What Is Vladimir Putin Prepared To Give Ukraine? Ex-Kremlin Adviser Sergei Markov Reveals

Moscow: As the highly anticipated Alaska summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to take place, questions are mounting over what Russia might be willing to offer Ukraine as part of any negotiated settlement to the ongoing war.  

“The Russian position is that they want the whole of Donbas. They want the land corridor between Donbas and Crimea. They want no NATO for Ukraine, no Western troops monitoring on ceasefire, no security guarantee for Ukraine. Tell me what Vladimir Putin gives in return for all that, what is he prepared to give?” asked Mark Austin of Sky News.

To this, the former adviser to the Russian president, Sergei Markov, responded bluntly, saying, “Russia will give nothing.” He further added, “Vladimir Putin is going to get more.”

What Might a Russia–Ukraine ‘Land Swap’ Negotiation Look Like?

Earlier, President Trump has repeatedly spoken of a possible “land swap,” which he claims could help bring an end to the fighting. “There’ll be some land swapping going on,” Trump told reporters earlier this week.

Currently, Russia occupies around one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine holds almost no Russian land. The question, then, is what a “land swap” would actually mean in practical terms.

Russia now controls approximately 114,500 square kilometers, over 19%, of Ukraine, including Crimea and substantial portions of eastern and southeastern Ukraine. Some estimates suggest this figure could be even higher.

Ukraine, in contrast, controls virtually no Russian territory. Analysts say that if the fighting continues at its present pace, Russia could end up occupying all four eastern and southeastern Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. 

At present, Moscow holds nearly all of Luhansk, as well as roughly three-quarters of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, according to recent reports.

In 2022, shortly after the war began, Putin officially declared all four provinces to be part of Russian territory.

Russia also maintains control over small pockets of land in the northern Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Moscow has claimed it is carving out a “buffer zone” in Sumy to protect the Kursk region from potential Ukrainian attacks.

Earlier this week, President Trump remarked that Russia had taken over some “very prime territory” and said he would “try to get some of that territory back.”

However, since Ukraine does not currently hold any significant Russian land that could be offered in exchange, questions remain about what Trump’s “land swap” would involve.

According to the reports, Moscow’s position includes a demand that Ukraine unilaterally withdraw from all of the Donbas region, an area of strategic and economic importance that comprises Donetsk and Luhansk. If Kyiv were to accept, which appears highly unlikely, this would mean pulling Ukrainian forces out and ceding roughly 6,600 square kilometers that remain under Ukrainian control in the region.

In June, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky stated that, despite Russian assertions to the contrary, Ukrainian forces still held about 90 square kilometers of Russian territory in the Kursk region. Even if accurate, the size and strategic value of this area are negligible compared to the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.

For this reason, many in Ukraine see talk of a land swap as closer to a surrender than a negotiated compromise.

“Putin wants us to leave Donbas. We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do this,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. “Everyone forgets the first part — our territories are illegally occupied.”

ALRO READ: Trump Warns Putin Of Severe Consequences Ahead Of Alaska Summit