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Updated December 20th, 2023 at 10:24 IST

India's GDP to hit $5 trillion by 2026: Arvind Panagariya

Panagariya highlighted that Japan would need a 3.5% annual growth rate in current dollar terms to reach $5.03 trillion by 2027.

Business Desk
India GDP
India GDP | Image:Republic
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Arvind Panagariya, former Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog, predicts that India's GDP will reach$ 5 trillion by 2026, making it the world's third-largest economy. 

In a lecture titled 'India at 125: Reclaiming the Lost Glory and Returning the Global Economy to the Old Normal,' he stressed upon the unlikelihood of Germany or Japan crossing the $5 trillion mark in the next three years.

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Panagariya highlighted that Japan would need a 3.5 per cent annual growth rate in current dollar terms to reach $5.03 trillion by 2027, while Germany, with a 4 per cent growth rate, would reach $ 5.1 trillion in the same year.

At India's current annual average growth rate of 10.22 per cent in current dollar terms, Panagariya believes India's GDP will hit $5 trillion in 2026 and $5.5 trillion in 2027. This projection suggests that India could become the world's third-largest economy earlier than most predictions.

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To achieve its full potential, Panagariya stressed the need for reforms that support the growth of larger economic units in industry and services. He further said the interconnectedness of small habitations, farms, and enterprises and suggested that enabling larger enterprises would create job opportunities, leading to rural-urban migration.

Panagariya expressed confidence in India's imminent economic transformation, foreseeing the next two decades as a period of rapid change and the subsequent three decades as witnessing unparalleled and steadily rising prosperity. 

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He concluded by noting the historic significance of this moment and the positive impact it could have on India's future.

(With PTI Inputs)

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Published December 16th, 2023 at 11:42 IST

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