Satyaprem Ki Katha box office prediction: Kartik Aaryan-Kiara Advani to score another hit?

Satyaprem Ki Katha is all set to hit the big screens on June 29. The Kartik Aaryan and Kiara Advani starrer is a romance drama, whose trailer and songs have generated a positive buzz among the audience. An additional element in the film is the return of the lead pair of Kartik and Kiara, who are reuniting a year after the box-office success of the horror comedy Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2.  

3 things you need to know

• Kartik Aaryan and Kiara Advani both enjoy individual fan bases, which will draw different groups of audiences to theatres.
• Trade experts say the movie’s business will depend entirely on word-of-mouth.
• While the film may not do well in Southern regions of India, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Chennai may contribute significantly to box office figures.

Eid holiday is expected to give Satyaprem Ki Katha a good start

Kartik has proved to be a major crowd-puller in recent times. However, after Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 made a ₹14 crore opening at the box office, the actor's next release Shehzada managed to earn only ₹6 crore. Film exhibitor Akshaye Rathi opined that day 1 collection for Satyaprem Ki Katha will be mid-range, slightly more than Shehzada but definitely less than Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2. 

"The Day 1 numbers right now are looking like they should hit something to the tune of ₹6-7 crore. But it entirely depends on the next couple of days. With the promotions gathering pace and new songs coming out, there is a good chance that it could do more than ₹8 crores. The subject and theme of the film are such that if it connects with the audience, it could do wonders. The film's response will entirely depend on word-of-mouth." 

(Kartik Aaryan in Satyaprem Ki Katha | Image: YouTube/NadiadwalaGrandson)

Trade analyst Ramesh Bala predicted almost similar numbers and also pointed to the film’s holiday release on Eid al-Adha, saying, "₹7-9 crore for all-India can be expected. The buzz is average but since the release is coinciding with Eid, if the content is good, it could do more as well on the opening day."

Weekend collection to cross ₹40 crore mark at the box office? Perhaps

The box office business of a medium-budget film like Satyaprem Ki Katha will rely entirely on positive word-of-mouth from the viewers, pointed out Rathi and Bala. "The weekend could very well turn out to be in the range of ₹35-42 crore. If word-of-mouth is not powerful, the collection could dip to ₹21-22 crore. It is entirely banking on word-of-mouth and reports that come out after release. If everything is positive, the collections could rise like wildfire," Rathi said. 

(Kartik Aaryan in  a song sequence from Satyaprem Ki Katha | Image: YouTube/NadiadwalaGrandson)

"The weekend would be anywhere between ₹32-40 crore. If the film is well received, ₹40 crore is achievable. If reviews are not good, it could do ₹30 crores or less," Bala added.

Kartik-Kiara pairing is a crowd-puller, but content is king 

After the success of their previous outing Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2, it is natural for viewers to put their faith in the lead pair of Kartik Aaryan and Kiara Advani. However, trade analysts maintain that while it will be a factor that determines the movie’s business, it will not supersede the film’s content. 

"Both Kartik and Kiara are popular as a pair and as individuals. They can certainly pull it off. It is a good Jodi and there is positive anticipation. If such medium-budget movies do well at the box office, it is a positive sign for Bollywood in the longer run," Bala said.

(Kartik Aaryan, Kiara Advani reunite after Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 | Image: YouTube/NadiadwalaGrandson)

Adding to this, Rathi said, "It definitely creates a buzz around the film but whether or not people will buy tickets to see them on-screen entirely depends on the kind of traction the movie gets. The trailers and songs have generated a good amount of curiosity. Add to that, you have Kartik and Kiara who have been successful as a pair in the past. It holds promise but it is not a make-or-break factor. It ultimately depends on how entertaining the film is. We have seen jodis deliver both big hits and not-so-successful films in the past." 

Collection in Mumbai crucial to film's business

On being asked how much of the film's business could come in from southern India, Ramesh Bala treads with caution. He said that in the South, huge box office numbers are usually garnered for big-budget action films. So Satyaprem Ki Katha is not expected to do much business in these markets. However, metro cities like Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad could contribute to the film’s earnings. 

"In the South, it can do well in cities like Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Chennai, which are metro cities. For Hindi films to do well they have to be action films like Pathaan or cop movies like Simmba. But huge collections are reserved for Khans, Hrithik Roshan, and big-budget movies like Pathaan," Bala said.

(Screengrab of Satyaprem Ki Katha trailer | Image: YouTube/NadiadwalaGrandson)

He also shared his thoughts about Mumbai could be the biggest contributor to the film's business. "Mumbai is the biggest region for any Bollywood film. It will be a big factor and if it can pull through, nothing better. The movie has the potential to do very well in regions of Maharashtra like Mumbai, Nagpur, and Pune. It will depend on how couples turn out to see the film, seeing it made for them," he concluded.

The predicted numbers give us good reason to be optimistic about Satyaprem Ki Katha’s performance at the box office. However, how much potential the film holds will only be proved once the film releases theatrically on June 29.