IMF projects Indian economy to grow by 11.5% in 2021, surpassing China's 8.1% growth

In heartening news for the pandemic-hit nation, the international monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected a 11.5% growth for India in 2021 - making it the only major economy of the world to register double-digit growth this year amidst the coronavirus pandemic. China is next with 8.1 per cent growth in 2021 followed by Spain (5.9 per cent) and France (5.5 per cent). This development comes days before Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitaraman is set to present the Union Budget for FY-21-22.

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IMF projects 11.5% growth for India

IMF has also projected that India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2022 and that of China by 5.6 per cent, with India regaining its ag of the fastest developing economies of the world. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that she is impressed by the appetite for structural reforms that India is retaining. The United Nations, on the other hand, projected India's economy to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2021, even as it is estimated to contract by 9.6 per cent in 2020.

“What we see is that transition, combined with policy support, seems to have worked well. Why? Because if you look at mobility indicators, we are almost where we were before COVID in India, meaning that economic activities have been revitalized quite significantly,” said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva adding, "“Emerging markets on average have provided six per cent of GDP. In India this is slightly above that. Good for India is that there is still space to do more". 

India's GDP to contract by 7.7% for FY 20-21 estimates Centre; hit by year-long pandemic

India's GDP to contract by 7.7% in FY 20-21

Earlier on 7 January, the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation estimated that India's GDP will be -7.7% for FY 20-21 - lowest till date. As per the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India is set to see a marginally positive 0.1% growth in the third quarter. Currently India has entered recession witnessing two quarters of contaction : -23% and -7.5% respectively.

Marking its worst contraction in history, India's GDP growth for the first quarter of FY 21 stood at -23.9% as per data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on August 31. This contraction came after the overall FY 19-20 GDP growth stood at 4.2%, hitting an 11-year low. As per market reports, core sectors' growth stood at: Industries at -381%, Services at -20.6%, Manufacturing at -39.3 %, Trade, Hotels at -47%. Agriculture has been the only sector to see growth clocking a 3.4% increase, due to rural sector remaining mostly free from lockdown. Subsequently, in the second quarter of FY 21, India's GDP contracted at -7.5% - plunging the nation into recession with two successive quarters of contraction.

(With PTI Inputs)

COVID-hit global economy projected to grow at 5.5 per cent in 2021: IMF

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