The final round of counting of votes in Jharkhand Assembly Elections is underway and the alliance of JMM-Congress-RJD looks set to form the new government in the state. Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll which was conducted on Saturday has predicted the results of the Jharkhand Assembly polls with 100% accuracy. Jan Ki Baat founder and psephologist Pradeep Bhandari while speaking to Republic World on Monday explained the factors which led to the fall of the Raghubar Das government in the state.
In Jharkhand, the arrogance of the Chief Minister and the anti-incumbency against the state government has led to the BJP's defeat. In earlier state elections as well, when the BJP government was in power, it was because there was anti-incumbency against the Chief Ministers in those states, for example, Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan.
Pradeep Bhandari mentioned the 'Rebel-factor' which was witnessed in the recently concluded Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections as well where the BJP rebels contested as Independents or from other parties like Shiv Sena. Despite giving a stable government in Jharkhand for five years, BJP is losing because at least 30 BJP members fought the elections as Independents. Even outgoing CM Raghubar Das is trailing BJP rebel candidate and former minister Saryu Roy by over 10,000 votes in Jamshedpur (East) constituency, as per the latest trends available on the Election Commission website.
The Jan Ki Baat founder pointed out that whenever it is not about PM Narendra Modi, the BJP has faced a deficit in that state. A state leadership matters in Assembly elections. Bhandari said that "People people are now understanding that when they have to vote for Modi and when they do not have to vote for Modi."
Giving the example of West Bengal, he said, 'The Modi factor will work in West Bengal as there in anti-incumbency against Mamata Banerjee, but that will not be the case in Delhi."
As per predictions, the UPA was projected to win 37-46 seats defeating the BJP which was projected to win anywhere between 22-30 seats. Meanwhile, AJSU was projected to win 3-5 seats, JVM was predicted to win 3-4 seats. Meanwhile, other parties including LJP, AJSU, JVM, CPI(M) were set to win 5-7 seats. The Jan Ki Baat Exit polls prediction was the only Exit Poll to have predicted that the fight between Raghubar Das and Saryu Roy would go down to the wire and it won't be easy for Das to win that seat. As per the latest trends according to the Election Commission, BJP has won 11 seats and leading in 15 seats. The Congress has won 8 seats and is leading in 7. JMM has won 12 seats and is leading in 18 seats.