National Approval Ratings: In 28-seat Karnataka, NDA projected to emerge victorious in a neck-to-neck contest with UPA

With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.

In Karnataka, which has 28 seats, a nail-biting competition between the UPA and the NDA is predicted if the elections were taken place in the state in March.

The coalition of Congress and JD(S), which is currently power in the state, is projected to be dethroned by the BJP-led NDA when it comes to the General elections by a small margin. Speaking about the vote share, there's neck-to-neck battle between the two coalitions, with NDA at 46.4 % and UPA at 46.3 % of votes share. While Others are projected to lose massively in the elections, they are projected to gain a vote share of 7.3 percent.

Here are the numbers for Karnataka:

Vote Share:

NDA - 16
UPA - 12
Others - 0

Seat Share:

NDA - 46.4
UPA- 46.3
Others - 7.3

 

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Comparison to previous predictions:

January predictions: In terms of seat share, in the 28-seat state, the UPA and NDA was projected to win an equal number of seats i.e. 14 seats each. However, this projection entailed a 4-seat drop for NDA in comparison December approval projection. 

December predictions: Despite being projected to have a better vote share (47.6 percent), the UPA was expected to win 13 seats [10 for Congress and 3 for JD(S)], two less than the BJP, despite them having a vote share of 42.3 percent.

The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.

READ: National Approval Ratings: Modi Wave Back In 2019? PM's Popularity In Major Upswing Since Pro-poor Budget - Skyrockets After Pro-India Airstrike