With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.
With 39 seats in its kitty, here is the projection for the state of Tamil Nadu:
UPA: 34 seats
NDA: 5 seats
January prediction: The Congress-DMK alliance was predicted a clean sweep in the state, while NDA and AIADMK were projected for a massive loss. All 39 seats are projected to go into the bag of UPA (30 for DMK and 9 for Congress), in a scenario which happened in the last edition of the National Approval Ratings.
December prediction: The alliance of DMK and Congress was projected to win, leaving the NDA and AIADMK biting the dust. All the 39 seats were projected to be won by the UPA (30 for DMK and 9 for Congress), and despite the AIADMK and BJP winning 26.4 and 9.5 per cent votes respectively, they were expected to come empty-handed.
November prediction: The prediction for the month was nearly the same. DMK was projected to add one more seat to their tally at the expense of BJP, which meant the former would win 29 seats and the latter winning just one seat. The other parties' seat-share remained the same.
The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.
(The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.)