National Approval Ratings | NDA or UPA - Here's who would win if the 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held today

With a month for the Lok Sabha assembly polls, the mood in the nation is turned towards politics. The polls will take place from April 11 to May 19 and the counting of the votes will start on May 23.

For the month of March, Republic TV and Cvoter have brought to you the National Approval Ratings.

The survey answers the question: What would happen if elections were held today?

The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. 

A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.

Here is what the numbers say:

While in the Parliamentary elections of 2014, BJP had secured a majority of seat share on its own winning 282 seats and NDA winning a total of 336 seats. Congress lost by securing merely 44 seats and 60 UPA seats in the Lok Sabha 2014 elections

As per the survey for March, the NDA is projected to be a clear winner by bagging 264 seats while UPA is projected to win 141 seats out of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The rest of the parties are likely to win 138 seats. 

The survey shows that NDA is likely to lose 18 seats as compared to its 2014 perfomance, while the UPA is likely to make a leap with 81 seats.

Vote share for the parties:
NDA: 41.1%
UPA: 30.9%
Others: 28%

As the data shows, the difference of amount of votes between NDA and UPA is still not very wide.

The January and December editions of National Approval Ratings have a wafer-thin difference between them. In January NDA was likely to get 37.6% vote share  and UPA was likely to get 32.2%. In December, NDA was projected to secure 37.7% of vote share and Congress-led UPA was at 32.8%.

READ | National Approval Ratings: Congress Or BJP? Here Are The Projections For How The Lok Sabha 2019 Elections May Pan Out