With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.
With 80 seats in its kitty, here is the projection for the state of Uttar Pradesh:
January's National Approval Prediction: BJP-led NDA's figures in alliance with Apna Dal was predicted to fall massively down to just 25 seats. However, the Gathbandhan of SP and BSP in the state was predicted to make big gains by winning 51 seats, 1 seat more than the December projection of the National Approval Ratings.
November's National Approval Ratings projection: It came as a big worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath when the ruling coalition dropped from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. The Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, saw an increase to 5 seats, while the traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, were projected to be the biggest gainers, increasing their combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won none) to 44.
October's National Approval Ratings: The NDA's seat-share projection had dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. The UPA, on the other hand, was projected to have increased its seat-share from 2 to 5, while the Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) were projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 seats.
The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.
(The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.)