India's COVID-19 statistics: Reading the tea leaves

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has been holding out daily bulletins on the COVID situation in the country. The Union Ministry has been updating the COVID-19 case statistics on its official website. But what do these numbers really indicate? 

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Here is a breakdown of the COVID-19 statistics of India: 

21393 COVID CASES, 29 DAYS INTO LOCKDOWN

India has seen a total of 21,393 cases on the 29th day of the lockdown to arrest the pandemic. All eyes of experts will be on this number for the next 10 days, after which the nation-wide lockdown is scheduled to end, should the situation come under control. 

LOWEST SPIKE  IN 18 DAYS

The total increase in cases on Thursday morning was a spike of 7.05%. This spike rate is the lowest India has witnessed in the past 18 days. In fact, the daily spike has been consistently lowering for the past 4 days from 20 April. Should the daily spike continue to lower, India could edge towards flattening the curve. 

A PROJECTED 10.75 DOUBLING RATE

The daily spike on Thursday was 7.05%. Should this daily spike remain consistent, with no increase or decrease, the total number of cases would double only after 10 whole days. 

It is crucial to remember that on 5 April, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, had said, “Our doubling rate at present is 4.1 days. But if the additional cases reported due to the Tablighi Jamaat event had not taken place, then the doubling rate would have been 7.4 days.” The potential doubling rate on day 29 of the lockdown is a marked improvement from this projection. 

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ONE-FIFTH HAVE RECOVERED

On Thursday, the  Ministry of Health and Family Welfare recorded a total of 4,257 recovered cases of COVID. This 19.89% of all the COVID cases in the country. Meaning, one-fifth of all the COVID cases in the country today, are people who have recovered. 
 
 3.18% FATALITY RATE, HALF THE GLOBAL AVERAGE

India as on Day 20 of the lockdown has a fatality rate of 3.18%. The approximate global fatality rate is 6.97%. This means India has half the fatality rate as the global average. The fatality rate in the US has been 5.6%, the fatality rate in Spain has been 10.4% and the fatality rate in Italy has been 13.39%. 
 
OVER 5 LAKH COVID TESTS CONDUCTED

The ICMR has already tested a total of 5,00,542 samples, that have been collected from 4,85,172 individuals. The overall testing to positive ratio in India is 4.49% as on Day 29 of the Lockdown.

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(The views and opinions expressed within the article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing do not reflect the views of Republic TV/ Republic World/ ARG Outlier Media Pvt. Ltd.)