National Approval Ratings: In Uttar Pradesh, big gains projected for SP-BSP alliance even as NDA's seat-share projected to dwindle

Months ahead of the all-important Lok Sabha polls, Republic TV, in association with CVoter, has released the National Approval Ratings which captures the mood of the nation if the elections were to take place in December. In 2014, the BJP registered a massive seat-share in Uttar Pradesh, winning 73 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh which is the country's most electorally significant state. The Congress, on the other hand, managed to secure just 2 seats -- Sonia Gandhi's Rae Bareli and Rahul Gandhi's Amethi -- while the SP (Samajwadi Party) who were in power in the state at that time, won only five and Mayawati's BSP failed to win a single seat. In December 2018, however, the situation is projected to have changed.

Here are the National Approval Ratings for Uttar Pradesh if the elections were held in December 2018:

These projections have come days after the BJP lost three of the Hindi heartland states of the country to the Congress in the assembly elections 2018, the result of which came on December 11.

As per the December projections, BJP-led NDA's figures in alliance with Apna Dal are predicted to fall massively down from 73 to just 28 seats. However, the gathbandhan of SP and BSP in the state is predicted to make big gains by winning 50 seats, 8 seats more than the November projection of the National Approval Ratings.

• Out of 80 seats, the NDA will get a vote share of 42.8% with a seat share of 28 seats and within it, 27 to the BJP and 1 to the Apna Dal.
• The Congress will get a vote share of 7.3% with a seat share of 2 seats. 
• The SP+BSP+RLD alliance will get a vote share of 44.3% with a whopping 50 seats in its bag.

Therefore, going by the projections, the Hindi heartland UP is going against the BJP at the assembly level with the 'gathbandhan' of Akhilesh Yadav's SP and Mayawati's BSP swooping the majority. 

Comparison of the current numbers with the projections of October and November National Approval Ratings:

November's National Approval Ratings projection came as big worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath, when the ruling coalition dropped from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. The Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, saw an increase to 5 seats, while the traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, were projected to be the biggest gainers, increasing their combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won none) to 44.

In October National Approval Ratings, the NDA's seat-share projection had dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. The UPA, on the other hand, was projected to have increased its seat-share from 2 to 5, while the Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) were projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 seats.

Congress party loses big?

For the NDA, the projection may mean a 45-seat fall from 2014 but all is not lost considering, in terms of a vote share, there is a 0.4% increase from 2014. And should these projections be true, there is still a glimmer of hope for the BJP to swing UP. However, for the Congress, the projections indicate the party to be the biggest loser with a projected 3.7 fall in votes share and status quo in terms of seat-share from 2014. These projections may prove that Congress made zero inroads in the state.

Yet again, the Akhilesh and Mayawati alliance came as the biggest winners as per December projections with a vote share of 44.3% which is a 2.4% increase from their combined vote share of 41.9% in 2014 and a 45 seat increase from their combined performance of 2014.

The alternative scenario (What is there is no Gathbandhan?)

• Should the Mahagathbandhan not carry forward to the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the NDA can come out as the biggest winner with a massive 72 seats and a vote share of 42.8%. Then this projection would mean the BJP led NDA is seeing a 1 seat fall from 2014 despite the dual centre-state anti-incumbency.
• However, nothing may change for the Congress party with or without the Mahagathbandhan.