El Nino Looms, But Monsoon Delivers: Heavy Rain Lashes South India as North India Continues to Face Heatwaves

New Delhi: As southern states witness heavy showers and rain-soaked streets, weather forecasts continue warning of a developing El Nino pattern that usually weakens India’s monsoon. 

However, despite the concerns over below-normal rainfall this year, the southwest monsoon is steadily advancing across the country, bringing widespread rain to parts of southern and coastal India while large parts of north India continue to battle heatwave conditions.

The southwest monsoon, which officially arrived in Kerala on June 4, is now steadily expanding its footprint across the country. 

Monsoon Reaches Kerala Late, Advances Across South India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on June 4, three days later than the usual onset date of June 1 and four days behind its own earlier forecast.

Despite the delayed arrival, the system has picked up pace, and as of June 6, the monsoon has advanced further into Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and parts of Goa.

The weather system has already covered Kerala, Lakshadweep and Mahe, while conditions remain favourable for further advancement into Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and northeastern states over the next few days.

Heavy Showers in South, Heat Persists Elsewhere

While southern states are witnessing widespread rain activity, weather patterns across the rest of India remain sharply divided.

Parts of Bihar continue to remain under heatwave conditions, while Delhi is expected to receive rainfall that could provide temporary relief from rising temperatures.

In Uttar Pradesh, the weather remains mixed. Several districts, including Lucknow, Varanasi, Noida and Ghaziabad, are likely to witness rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds due to active western disturbances.

However, temperatures remain stubbornly high. Banda recorded 42.2°C, making it one of the hottest places in the state, with Varanasi and Jhansi also crossing 41°C.

Why Is It Raining Despite El Nino Worries?

What makes this year unusual is that heavy rainfall activity has started even as meteorological agencies continue warning about El Nino conditions developing during the monsoon season.

IMD has forecast rainfall at 90 per cent of the long-period average this year, with a higher probability of below-normal rainfall.

Global forecasts from NOAA suggest the 2026 El Nino could strengthen significantly and continue into winter, a climate pattern that typically weakens Indian monsoons by disrupting rain-bearing systems.

However, experts point out that monsoon behaviour is not uniform. Regional rainfall events, western disturbances, local weather systems and ocean temperatures can still trigger intense rainfall episodes even during an El Nino year.

Why Kerala’s Monsoon Arrival Matters

The arrival of monsoon over Kerala is more than just a weather event. It marks the beginning of the rain system’s annual journey across India.

Over the next several weeks, the monsoon will move northward, carrying rainfall critical for agriculture, drinking water supplies, reservoir levels and hydropower generation.

More than 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall comes from the southwest monsoon, making its progress one of the most closely watched developments every year.

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