COVID-19: Scientists find new UK variant likely to increase death toll, hospital admission

The new variant of the coronavirus strain discovered in the UK is likely to cause more hospitalizations and spike the death toll in 2021 as it is 56 per cent more transmissible, new research conducted by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found. SARS-CoV-2 variant named VOC 202012/01 that emerged in southeast England in November 2020 "appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation," the new study said. However, there is no scientific evidence yet whether the disease COVID-19 is expected to get more severe for those that contract the new variant as the WHO has collaborated with health experts worldwide to get more information about the new mutated strain. 

"We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths," scientists explained in the newly published study.

Further, it was revealed that the rate of hospitalization had spiked in the NHS England regions of South East, East of England, and London. Scientists found that the mutated genome was extremely communicable than any preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2 known.

"The increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December," researchers warned. The study suggested that a national lockdown such as one implemented in England in November 2020 was found to be effective in suppression of the rate of transmissibility of the new variant in some parts but it was "unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1". 

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17 mutations found

Earlier, UK announced at a press conference that a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant known as the Variant of Concern 202012/01 (henceforth VOC 202012/01), was prevalent and had rapidly spread across several parts of England, London, and South East. Moreover, the UK also identified a second ‘more transmissible’ COVID-19 variant linked to South Africa which was spreading at a dangerous rate despite the tiering system put in place, UK health secretary Matt Hancock announced. At least two cases in London and North West England who were diagnosed positive to the coronavirus second new variant were put under quarantine. Both the patients had travelled from South Africa over the last few weeks. Scientists have found 17 mutations of the first variant of the fast-evolving genome. 

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