China’s Car Sales May Stagnate in 2026, Strong EV Export Growth Unlikely To Last

China’s Car Sales: China's car sales are expected to be flat this year, extending a downtrend, while robust electric vehicle exports in 2025 are unlikely to be sustained, a Chinese industry association said on Friday.

Car sales in the world's largest auto market were up 3.9 per cent in 2025, slowing from growth of 5.3 per cent in 2024 and the slowest in three years, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed.

A stacked bar chart showing new energy vehicle sales and other car sales in China from 2021 to 2025. New energy vehicles accounted for over half the sales in China in 2025.

Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids outsold gasoline vehicles for the first time annually, but sales growth of such vehicles slowed sharply to 17.6 per cent last year from 40.7 per cent in 2024.

The line chart shows the share of new energy vehicle sales and sales of other fuel type cars in China. The sales share of new energy vehicles was at 59 per cent in December 2025.

Domestic demand faded in the last quarter, as many cities and provinces reduced or suspended government subsidies for auto trade-ins due to a funding shortage, intensifying cut-throat competition and prompting automakers to step up overseas expansion to offset a sluggish domestic market.

Chinese automaker BYD posted its weakest sales growth in five years in 2025, but sales abroad hit a record of more than 1 million vehicles.

China's overall car exports increased 19.4 per cent to 5.79 million vehicles last year, while pure EV exports were up 48.8 per cent to 1.52 million units, the CPCA data showed.

The association had expected car export growth to cool to 10 per cent in 2025 from 25 per cent a year earlier. It had predicted zero growth for EV exports.

Cui Dongshu, CPCA secretary-general, said domestically the sector will be under pressure to reduce inventories this year, while EV export growth will likely trend down, given a weaker outlook for electric cars and falling oil prices.

Plug-in hybrid exports are estimated to remain strong this year, however, he added. Exports of these vehicles more than tripled in 2025.

TOUGHER YEAR AHEAD

The CPCA's forecast for stagnant domestic car sales this year could put China's auto market on track for the worst year since 2020 when the economy was disrupted by the pandemic, based on CPCA data.

The extension of car subsidies as part of the country's consumer goods trade-in programme is unlikely to prevent sales from falling, S&P Global Ratings said.

The rating agency cited the revised subsidy scheme as adding to pressure on companies such as BYD and Geely.

The subsidies remain capped at 20,000 yuan ($2,859.47) apiece for trading in old cars for EVs, but the extended scheme has shifted from a fixed subsidy to one based on new vehicle prices. This could potentially reduce incentives on lower-priced vehicles that make up the bulk of new car sales in China.

Subsidised vehicle sales exceeded 11.5 million vehicles last year, official data showed.

A China Automobile Dealers Association survey showed that 41 per cent of surveyed dealers expected lower sales targets from automakers in 2026, and 18.1 per cent of those surveyed forecast a drop of more than 10 per cent.

Some automakers remained upbeat. Xiaomi, which makes the SU7 sedan and YU7 SUV, sold more than 410,000 EVs in 2025 and is targeting 550,000 vehicles in sales for this year

Leapmotor expects 68 per cent growth in sales volume after its 2025 sales more than doubled from 2024.

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