Who Made Rs 840 Crore In 20 Minutes From Trump's Iran War Announcement?

Ahead of US President Donald Trump's five-day haul on attacking Iran and its energy sites, a select set of trades in S&P 500 e-Mini futures, and crude oil futures resulted in a staggering Rs 840 crore profit.

At 4:20 pm on March 23, 2026, there was a sharp, isolated volume spike in S&P 500 e-Mini futures (ES) on the CME — with roughly $1.5 billion notional bought in a single large clip, signalling a pre-market order 4–6x larger than usual orders.

Simultaneously, a significant selling occurred in crude oil futures, totalling $192 million notional shorted. Following this, Trump posted on Truth Social about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran, while also delaying plan to strike Iran's energy infrastructure sites.

Also Read: Gold Rate Today: Check Gold Prices In Bengaluru, Kolkata & Other Cities

S&P 500 futures immediately surged over 2.5% in pre-market, and oil futures plunged 6–11%, meanwhile, the cash market opened sharply higher with S&P 500 rose over 2.5% on the day ahead of Iran refuting Trump's diplomatic talk claims.

The bets included first buying S&P 500 futures worth about Rs 12,600 crore, and selling nearly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts worth roughly approximately Rs 4,870 crore.

The trades perfectly positioned for a risk-on/oil-off move resulted in Rs 840 crore in profit 20 minutes before Trump's Iran war pause.

The special attention to this trade, where someone placed Rs 14,000 crore across two markets, is the timing given there was no indication of either a press briefing or Trump's announcement that would result in a rally across benchmark stock market indices.

Insider Leak Or Luck? 

The White House has said it “does not tolerate” illegal profiteering, but no official comment has been given by SEC or CME on investigating the specific trades.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, "The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what's best for the American people," citing The Financial Times report.

"The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting," he said. 

Interestingly, This isn’t the first time Trump’s Truth Social posts have moved markets dramatically. But what makes this one mysterious, is the sudden spike minutes before Trump's claims.