India's Nuclear Arsenal Climbs to 190, Moving Past Pakistan as Country May Be Shifting to Peacetime Warhead Deployments

India’s nuclear weapons stockpile experienced a marginal increase over the past year, accompanied by the strategic deployment of a small number of warheads on a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and the execution of deterrence patrols. These findings were published Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its latest annual yearbook.

“India was estimated to have a growing stockpile of about 190 nuclear weapons as of January 2026, a small increase from the previous year. These weapons were assigned to a maturing nuclear triad of aircraft, land-based missiles and SSBNs,” the SIPRI report says.

The analysis further highlights a potential shift in New Delhi's operational posture during peacetime.  

“However, the country’s recent moves towards placing missiles in canisters and conducting sea-based deterrence patrols suggest that India could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime,” it added.  

Shifting Focus Toward Strategic Rivals

In 2025, SIPRI estimated India’s nuclear inventory at approximately 180 warheads. The latest figures show a rise to 190, with the institute estimating that around 12 warheads are currently deployed while 178 remain in storage. Conversely, Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile has held steady at an estimated 170 warheads for 2026.

While Islamabad actively expands its fissile material production and introduces new delivery platforms, New Delhi is prioritizing the development of longer-range weapons systems. This strategic shift increasingly factors in challenges posed by China, even as India maintains its traditional focus on Pakistan.

“Over the past decade, India’s nuclear planning has placed a greater emphasis on investing more resources in longer-range weapon systems that appear to be focused on China, but its planning still remains heavily influenced by its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan,” the report said.

Despite these growing arsenals, the report emphasizes that both South Asian neighbors successfully managed an 87-hour conventional conflict last May, implementing measures to prevent escalation into a nuclear crisis. Nevertheless, both nations persist in developing dual-capable missile systems to reinforce their military capabilities.

Upgrading the Naval Deterrent and Launch Capabilities

A significant aspect of India's military modernization centers on its undersea deterrence. The report underscores that India’s newest SSBN, INS Aridhaman, features twice the missile tube capacity of its predecessors, INS Arihant and INS Arighaat.

The INS Arihant utilizes the K-15 short-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). In contrast, the INS Arighaat has completed two test launches of the longer-range K-4 SLBM. SIPRI projects that India’s fourth SSBN will commission into service by 2027.

Currently, India commands an estimated 152 nuclear-capable launchers, which break down into the following structural segments:

India has also advanced its technological capabilities in Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs). The report indicates that India's Agni-V missile has demonstrated the capacity to deliver up to three nuclear warheads from a single launch platform.

Regional Dynamics: Pakistan and China

Pakistan continues the development of its own medium-range MIRV system, the Ababeel. However, SIPRI notes that limited testing and prolonged intervals between launches suggest the platform will likely not achieve operational status this year. Furthermore, Islamabad currently lacks a nuclear-powered SSBN. It is, however, expected to operationalize the Babur-3 sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM)—which is capable of carrying nuclear payloads—by 2027. For now, Pakistan's launch capabilities remain tethered to land and air platforms.

Meanwhile, China is outpacing all global powers in the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. Beijing possesses an estimated 620 nuclear warheads supported by 867 launchers.

“Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade. Yet even if China surpasses 1,000 warheads by 2030, that will still amount to only about one quarter of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles,” notes the SIPRI report.

The Global Nuclear Landscape

On a global scale, the total inventory stands at approximately 12,187 nuclear warheads, with roughly 9,745 kept in storage for potential deployment. The United States and Russia maintain the largest shares of this global stockpile; Washington holds around 3,700 warheads, while Moscow’s arsenal has seen a marginal expansion to roughly 4,400 warheads.

Other recognized nuclear powers include France with approximately 290 warheads, and the United Kingdom with 225. North Korea and Israel comprise the remaining nuclear-armed states, though Tel Aviv continues its long-standing policy of not publicly acknowledging its nuclear capabilities.
 

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