Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll Predicts BJP Tsunami In Bengal, TMC Down To 100 Seats

Kolkata: In a dramatic twist to the high-stakes West Bengal Assembly elections, pollster Today's Chanakya has projected a sweeping victory for the BJP, predicting as many as 192 ± 11 seats in the 294-member House, well past the majority mark and edging towards a two-thirds mandate.

The forecast pegs the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC+) at 100 ± 11 seats, with others expected to win just 2 ± 2 seats, suggesting what could be a historic breach of the party’s long-held stronghold.

The projection comes a day after multiple exit polls delivered a mixed verdict on the fiercely fought election, with some indicating a BJP surge, while others suggested the TMC could retain power. Pollsters such as Poll Diary, Matrize News and PMARQ have leaned towards the BJP, while Janmat and People’s Pulse indicated an edge for the ruling party.

Dismissing the projections outright, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said her party would comfortably cross the 226-seat mark, brushing aside suggestions of anti-incumbency or electoral erosion.

The contest has been widely seen as a referendum on whether the BJP, led in the state by Suvendu Adhikari, can convert its growing vote share into a decisive mandate, riding on issues such as corruption allegations and citizenship politics. For the TMC, the stakes are equally high. A victory would mark a fourth consecutive term for the TMC and reinforce Banerjee’s dominance in Bengal politics.

Historically, the TMC has defied projections. Since coming to power in 2011, the party has steadily increased its tally, from 184 seats in 2011 to 215 in 2021, comfortably above the halfway mark of 148. Even after a setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP won 18 seats to TMC’s 22, the ruling party rebounded strongly in 2024, securing 29 of the state’s 42 parliamentary seats.

Exit polls, however, have had a patchy track record in the state. In the last Assembly election, most pollsters significantly underestimated the TMC’s performance while overshooting the BJP’s tally. Today's Chanakya was among the closest but still fell short, while others like Jan Ki Baat and Axis My India predicted outcomes that did not materialise.

With voting now concluded, all eyes are on the final results scheduled to be announced on May 4 to see whether the latest projections signal a genuine political shift or another case of exit polls misreading Bengal’s complex electoral mood.

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