Cannot Afford To Keep India At Arm's Length: Why Bangladesh Needs India More Than Ever As Tarique Rahman Eyes August 21-26 Visit

Dhaka: Speculation is mounting in both New Delhi and Dhaka over whether Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will make his first visit to India between August 21 and 26, and whether he will use the trip to attend next month’s BRICS Summit. The chatter has grown after a series of quiet overtures from both sides to reset a relationship that has been strained since the political turbulence in Dhaka last year.

Tarique Rahman, who chose Beijing for his maiden overseas tour after taking office, has now moved to reach out to India as well. The visit is crucial at a time when Dhaka continues to press for the extradition of former PM Sheikh Hasina, who has been living in India since August 5, 2024 after she was forced to step down and seek refuge across the border.

According to experts, the balancing act explains a truth that both countries are acknowledging privately that confrontation serves neither side. Particularly Bangladesh, having shared rivers, power lines and supply chains binding them, cannot afford to keep India at arm’s length, while New Delhi is keen to prevent Dhaka from drifting further towards China and Pakistan.

Delhi Signals Reset Through Diplomacy

Earlier, India opened the door when former Bangladesh PM Begum Khaleda Zia passed away. External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar travelled to Dhaka with a condolence message from PM Narendra Modi and from Khaleda Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman. Though the visit steered clear of politics, it was read as a clear signal that Delhi wants to improve ties despite the Hasina hurdle.

Soon after, India named former Union minister Dinesh Trivedi as High Commissioner to Dhaka, which appeared to be deliberate. A veteran of West Bengal politics and a Bengali speaker, Dinesh Trivedi’s appointment was seen as an effort to speak Dhaka’s language, literally and politically.

Security Talks, BRICS Invite

The thaw gained momentum this month, when a high-level team from India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), led by chief Parag Jain, arrived in Dhaka on August 9 August for discussions on strategic security. The following day, Dinesh Trivedi met Rahman and extended an invitation to the BRICS Summit in Delhi.

According to reports, Bangladesh PM Rahman is likely to visit New Delhi between August 21 and 26 for talks with his Indian counterpart. The agenda is expected to range from water-sharing from transboundary rivers, border management, trade, and the sensitive question of Hasina’s extradition.

Why Dhaka Cannot Afford To Drift Away

The experts elaborated that the compulsions are largely economic and geographic as Bangladesh relies heavily on Indian electricity, with Adani Power supplying 1600 MW from the Godda plant in Jharkhand under a 25-year deal signed in 2017. The dependence was massively visible when the country suffered a total blackout on August 15.

Furthermore, food security is another link, since Dhaka imports rice, wheat, onions, spices, vegetables and animal fodder from India to keep prices stable. On trade, bilateral commerce stood at $11 billion in 2024-25. As the world’s second-largest exporter of readymade garments, Bangladesh routes much of the cargo through Indian land ports, and India also offered Dhaka the only viable corridor to access Nepal and Bhutan.

Although China remains a partner for infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative, it cannot replace a neighbour with whom Bangladesh shares a 4096-km border and 54 rivers. Tarique Rahman is seen to be pursuing pragmatism, avoiding the path taken by Muhammad Yunus, who leaned towards Pakistan and China.

Thorny Issues Remain On The Table

However, the most difficult file is Sheikh Hasina’s extradition, with Dhaka objecting strongly to her online press conference from Delhi and Rahman has asked India to create “a conducive atmosphere”. Hasina has stated that she intended to return in December, and Delhi is under pressure to ensure her safety.

Not only this, water is equally fraught as the 1996 Ganga water-sharing treaty has lapsed, negotiations have stalled, and the BNP has taken a hard line. Dhaka has also awarded the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP) to China’s PowerChina, a move that could bring Beijing close to India’s sensitive Siliguri Corridor.

The student leaders have had mixed reactions, with some welcoming the engagement, while others insist a CBI probe and resolution of pending issues are still needed before normalcy returns.

The foreign experts suggested that Dhaka needs economic stability, energy and regional connectivity that only cooperation with India can provide. In the meantime, Delhi does not want another neighbour to slip into China’s orbit and Rahman's coming weeks will test whether pragmatism can outweigh politics.

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