IEDs, Timing, and a Message: Why Peace in Manipur Is Being Deliberately Sabotaged

Manipur today stands as a painful reminder that conflicts do not always survive on hatred alone. Many are kept alive, nurtured, and reignited by forces that thrive on instability. The back-to-back IED explosions in Bishnupur district on Monday morning are not random acts of violence; they are calculated disruptions. They are messages. And they underline one uncomfortable truth: there are vested interests—what can only be described as a deep state ecosystem—that do not want peace to return to Manipur. 

The Blasts and Their Timing 

Between 5.40am and 5.45am, two IEDs exploded inside an abandoned house in the sensitive Saiton–Nganukhong area under Phougakchao police station, a volatile border zone between Meitei-majority Bishnupur and Kuki-Zo-majority Churachandpur. A third explosion followed at 8.45am, barely 200 metres away. Two civilians were injured, but the deeper wound was inflicted on trust, stability, and the fragile hope of reconciliation. 

A Signal to the State

This was not just another security lapse. The timing is critical. The blasts occurred barely two days after Union Home Minister Amit Shah chaired a high-level security review in Delhi, attended by Governor A.K. Bhalla, DGP Rajiv Singh and security advisor Kuldiep Singh. When violence erupts immediately after such meetings, it is rarely coincidental. It is often an attempt to embarrass the system, sabotage policy direction, and signal defiance to the authority of the Indian state. 

President’s Rule and Deep Networks 

Manipur is currently under President’s Rule, precisely because the state machinery had collapsed under prolonged ethnic violence. President’s Rule is meant to restore order, neutral governance, and security primacy. Yet, these explosions expose how entrenched networks continue to operate beneath the surface—networks that understand terrain, exploit ethnic fault lines, and operate with intelligence precision. 

Public Anger and Erosion of Trust 

The public anger that followed is telling. Locals dismantled a CRPF bunker nearby, accusing the force of failing to prevent the attack. This reaction reflects a dangerous erosion of confidence in security institutions. And that erosion is exactly what deep-state actors seek. When civilians begin to see security forces as ineffective or complicit, the social contract fractures. Disorder becomes self-sustaining. 

Communities United Against Violence 

Let us be clear: this violence does not serve Meitei interests. It does not serve Kuki-Zo interests. Both communities have suffered immensely—over 60,000 internally displaced, hundreds killed, livelihoods destroyed, villages burnt, and a generation psychologically scarred. Importantly, both Meitei and Kuki-Zo organisations condemned Monday’s blasts, calling them a grave threat to the peace process. That unanimity itself exposes the real culprits. When communities reject violence, yet violence continues, it is being driven by actors outside the community mandate. 

A Volatile Border Belt 

The border belt between Bishnupur and Churachandpur has long been a flashpoint. On December 16, the same zone witnessed firing by unidentified gunmen from the Churachandpur side at Meitei settlements, prompting additional security deployment. These recurring incidents follow a predictable pattern: provoke fear, trigger retaliation, force securitisation, and stall political reconciliation. It is a classic destabilisation loop. 

Resettlement Efforts Under Threat 

What makes the latest blasts particularly sinister is their timing with the administration’s effort to resettle internally displaced persons (IDPs). Resettlement is not just a humanitarian exercise; it is a political statement that normalcy is returning. IDPs going back to their villages weaken the narrative of permanent division. They challenge the logic of ethnic segregation. For deep-state actors—both domestic and possibly cross-border—this is unacceptable. 

Peace as a Threat to Shadow Economies 

Peace threatens their relevance. A peaceful Manipur means reduced funding flows for narco-terrorist networks, diminished influence of shadow intermediaries, and the collapse of extortion economies that flourish in chaos. It also weakens geopolitical manipulators who benefit from instability along India’s sensitive northeastern frontier. Manipur’s geography makes it strategically vital; instability here is not merely local—it has regional and international implications. 

India’s Familiar Script of Sabotage 

India has seen this script before. Whether in Kashmir, Punjab of the 1980s, or left-wing extremism belts, peace processes are always targeted at their most hopeful moments. Violence spikes when dialogue gains traction. That is the hallmark of a deep state that operates not necessarily from a single command centre, but as a convergence of interests—militants, profiteers, ideological extremists, and opportunistic political actors. 

Responsibility and Opportunity Under President’s Rule 

President’s Rule gives the Centre both responsibility and opportunity. The responsibility is to ensure airtight intelligence, visible accountability, and swift justice. The opportunity is to dismantle not just the foot soldiers planting IEDs, but the ecosystems that finance, protect, and ideologically justify them. 

The Path Forward: Enforced Peace and Healing 

Manipur does not need cosmetic peace. It needs enforced peace, followed by political healing. Security forces must be empowered, not scapegoated. Civilian confidence must be rebuilt through transparency and results. And most importantly, the nation must recognise that the biggest enemy of Manipur today is not one community versus another, but a shadowy deep state that feeds on blood, fear, and division. 

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