CWC 2023: A look at qualification scenario for Pakistan, Afghanistan and New Zealand for semi-final

England thrashed Netherlands yesterday riding on Ben Stokes' century knock and they solidified their position in order to qualify for Champions Trophy 2025 but yet they won't be competing form World Cup semi-final race anymore. There are 3 teams which have already secured their place in semi-finals that are India, Australia and South Africa. One spot is still up for grabs with Afghanistan, Pakistan and New Zealand still in contention for the fourth spot.

3 things you need to know

• Team India is unbeaten in the World Cup
• New Zealand has lost four back-to-back games
• England, Netherlands, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are already eliminated

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Qualification Scenario for New Zealand

Among the three teams, New Zealand has the best net run rate (0.398), but their recent performance which came as four straight losses is the poorest. In Bengaluru, where they will play Sri Lanka on Thursday, they suffered their most recent setback at the hands of Pakistan.

A victory will greatly increase their chances of advancing to the semi-finals because to their higher run rate (NRR), since Pakistan and Afghanistan will require huge margins of victory to surpass them. But if New Zealand loses, their only chance to qualify is if Afghanistan and Pakistan also lose and end up on eight, in which case they could qualify by accident based on NRR. That also means that a team that has lost five of its nine games will still be able to get to the World Cup semifinals.

In Bengaluru, a washout is also a possibility because Thursday is expected to bring rain. Should that occur, New Zealand would conclude with nine points, and once more, their only chance of qualifying is in the event that Pakistan and Afghanistan lose (provided their games aren't postponed).

Qualification Scenario for Pakistan

The NRR for Pakistan is the second-best of the three teams. Pakistan will therefore be in a very strong position to qualify if they win against England and New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka or if their match is postponed.

But if New Zealand triumphs, Pakistan will not only have to defeat England, but also by a comfortable margin. For example, Pakistan would need to win by 130 to surpass their NRR even if New Zealand wins by just one run after scoring 300 in a 50-over match.

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Qualification Scenario for Afghanistan

Afghanistan has the lowest NRR of -0.338 out of the three teams, therefore their best chance is to hope that neither Pakistan nor New Zealand wins their last match. Any victory margin over South Africa will do in that scenario. In order to surpass Pakistan's net run rate, Afghanistan will need to defeat South Africa by 140 runs. If New Zealand loses its final match against Sri Lanka and Pakistan defeats England by a run. However, if New Zealand wins by a run in the entire 50-over match, Afghanistan will need to win by a margin of 273 runs (based on 300 for the first innings). There have been two bigger winning margins in this competition, so it will take a really optimistic person to think Afghanistan can succeed.