Is Rajnikanth’s Coolie Headed for the Same Fate as Kamal Haasan’s Thug Life? Box-Office Trend Suggests So

Rajnikanth and Lokesh Kanagraj’s newest venture Coolie has been in the news for all the right reasons ever since the project has been announced. With names such as Rajnikanth, Upendra, Shruti Haasan headlining the project and Aamir Khan promising a cameo, it is clearly one of the most anticipated pan-India releases of the year.

Record-breaking remunerations for actor Rajnikanth and director Lokesh Kanagraj

The film has been in the talks for its high-budget of Rs. 350 crores before publicity and promotion expenses. In fact, Rajnikanth has been paid an astronomical 150 crores, one of the highest amounts ever paid to an Indian actor and director Lokesh Kanagraj a cool Rs. 50 crores which again is unheard of in the industry. Apart from these, the film also boasts of a huge crew. Therefore the film will have to do exceedingly well to be a success. Although the film has already managed to raise a revenue of Rs. 240 crores from non-theatrical resources including satellite rights, music rights, and OTT rights, it would still have to do considerably well at the box-office to be a profitable venture and this is exactly where the possibilities seem shaky. 

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Emerging box-office trend is not favouring star-driven pan-India releases

The debacle of Kamal Haasan’s Thug Life at the box-office is still fresh in the memory of all and the first half of 2025 has not been kind anyway. Among the 12 major pan-India releases, not a single film has been able to bring in the numbers in the Hindi markets. While Ram Charan’s Game Changer, Suriya’s Retro, and Ajith’s Vidaamuyarchi has been some of the worst financial losses of the veteran actors’ filmography, Mohanlal’s L2: Empuraan although successful in the Malayalam market has only managed to add Rs. 2.42 crores to its total collection from the Hindi markets.

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The verdict is clear - big budget action extravaganzas with the biggest South superstars have not turned out to be a successful formula for the Hindi audience in the first half of 2025 which is exactly what Coolie is. If the film wants to become a resounding success it would have to perform significantly well outside of Tamil and Telugu markets which does not seem likely given the current box-office trends making Coolie a major financial risk for the makers.