Southwest monsoon rainfall between June-September most likely to be 'Normal': Centre

The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) on Monday, June 1 announced that the southwest monsoon rainfall between June and September will most likely be 'Normal'- 102% of its long-period average (LPA),i.e 88 cm with a model error of ± 4%. Addressing a press briefing, MoES Secretary Dr.Madhavan Nair Rajeevan stated that the conditions were becoming more favourable for a good monsoon.

Elaborating on the region-wise break-up, he observed that the season's rainfall shall be 107% of LPA over north-west India, 103% of LPA over central India, 102% of LPA over the southern peninsula and 96% of LPA over north-east India all with a model error of ± 8%. Moreover, the probability of deficient rainfall and normal rainfall is 5% and 41% respectively. Meanwhile, the IMD confirmed that monsoon had arrived in Kerala on Monday. 

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Possibility of cyclonic storm

The Ministry also talked about the well-marked low-pressure area over the Southeast and adjoining East-central Arabian Sea. As per the MoES, it was likely to initially intensify into a deep depression during the next 12 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during the subsequent 24 hours. Thereafter, it is expected to move northwards till the morning of June 2 and cross the coasts of north Maharashtra and south Gujarat between Harihareshwar (Maharashtra) and Daman during the evening or night of June 3. On May 31, Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray had flagged concerns about the possibility of a cyclone hitting the Western coast and urged the fisherfolk not to venture out in the sea for the next 4-5 days.

The MoES predicted, "It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards initially till June 2 morning and then recurve north-northeastwards and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad, Maharashtra) and Daman during the evening/night of June 3."

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(Image credits: PTI)